| | | Credible war games scenarios suggest that China would not succeed in taking over Taiwan, but that the costs to China, the US, and Japan would be enormous. And this assumes nukes would not be used.
csis.org
For the US, therefore, the question is how to deter a conflict over Taiwan, keeping in mind that Chinese leadership has historically been not exactly reluctant to incur serious losses. Mao’s “so what?” comment when reminded in the 1950’s during the First Taiwan Straights conflict that an American nuclear strike could kill 300 million Chinese comes to mind.
To deter, the US must never put attacks on the mainland off the table. Whether this would be credible remains to be seen because China could easily make the same point. So, a game of chicken ensues. Which might actually be a deterrent itself, dependent on each side’s calculations.
But Taiwan itself has a huge deterrent: a conventional attack on the Three Gorges Dam, whose breach could create untold damage, perhaps more than even the Chinese traditional lack of aversion to such losses could tolerate. I have not seen much discussion about this option in the pertinent literature, but it seems to be an obvious option for both the US and Taiwan.
Such a war is unwinnable. It should never happen. But Chinese history and culture practically demands reunification, particularly as it may ultimately lead to control over vast ares of the Pacific if the results of the conflict are perceived as a Chinese success.
And cultural influences matter a lot. The Chinese see themselves as the successors to the Celestial Empire now ruled by a new set of mandarins and a leader who arrogantly sees himself as the rightful successor to the Celestial Emperors. And there is the Century of Shame to avenge, a real (in Chinese eyes) though weak justification for incurring huge domestic losses.
We live in very dangerous times. The US must show strength and resolve. Thank G*d we have Trump and not an idiot like Harris as President. If Vance follows Trump (something the Chinese will do everything in their power to prevent) the denouement might be temporrily avoided but it is unlikely to be avoided forever.
Americans at large are clueless about these dangers. But we have been clueless before, much to the ultimate regret of enemies who underestimated us. |
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