Your first two, I have some comments on.
I think NCR sort of fits into that category of tech company like DEC, DGN, Apple, and Wang, (or NOVL on the software side) which were early leaders but lost their way in an industry where rapid change is the norm and inability to keep up can be fatal. I have bought value plays in the past in tech without much success, when they were companies with weak mgmt and behind the curve, as opposed to a stock that got sold off for an extraneous reason. IBM is one of the few that came back from the dead.
I have owned Kodak and think that is a different situation, long term.
Short term it seems to be competition with Fuji and an old-line company without a sense of urgency, despite newer mgmt. Long term, the
reason I am concerned is the stability of its franchise, which is film sales. VCR cameras took a bite out of growth. Digital cameras may kill it over the long term. For example, I see no reason whatever why five (or some number of) years from now we will not have inexpensive digital cameras using disks capable of hundreds of pictures. One disk maybe costs $10 and covers you for a year - equivalent to maybe twenty times as much film and developing cost now. |
