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Biotech / Medical : MGI Pharma MOGN New patents, anti cancer
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To: Vector1 who wrote (729)2/23/1998 9:22:00 AM
From: Biomaven  Read Replies (3) of 1826
 
V1:

Thanks for the reference - I'll get hold of it and see whether it serves to temper my optimism on MGI-114.

Trying to rationally value 114 at this point is probably a hopeless task, but it might be worth trying anyway.

So here are my _guesses_ at some relevant current probabilities:

Probability of a European deal that substantially pays for Phase II: 75%

Probability that we make it into multiple Phase II's (with or without a European deal): 90%

Probability that we then make it into a Phase III: 50% (45% cumulative) (There would likely then be a US licensing deal prior to this point).

Probability then of a successful Phase III and approval: 50% (22.5% cumulative)

Probability then that it's a blockbuster: 10% (about 2% cumulative)

Any better informed guesses from you or other people on the thread? If this isn't a silly process, we could then try to estimate likely stock prices associated with each of these outcomes.

Peter
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