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Strategies & Market Trends : Elliott Wave and Index Trends with POKERSAM
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To: POKERSAM who wrote (1717)2/25/2025 3:46:18 PM
From: Rarebird3 Recommendations

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Chartgod
humble1
POKERSAM

   of 1764
 
There is really no way of knowing until after the fact once we see the massive destruction in asset values. But I tend to agree with you. That would place 2/19/2025 as the Top on SPX. High beta and AI stocks are getting crushed. And the leaders are getting hit hard.

My experience during the earliest days of a new bear market is that investors will rotate out of the leaders into defensive issues for a couple of months before we see a massive breakdown in all stocks.

What looked like a breakout last week turned into a fake out on Friday.

There are a number of recent data points in regard housing and service sector PMIs that indicate a recession is on the horizon, coming shortly. Plus, consumer confidence is deteriorating.

I had always thought that markets top on euphoria, not fear, which is a where we are at now so in the back of my mind, I have to wonder if this is the Top.

I went into 2025 thinking that a pretty severe secular bear was on the horizon and nothing has changed my mind in regard to that. I say secular, rather than cyclical bear, because I see the decline lasting possibly a good decade with cyclical bull rallies along the way.

I am expecting a radical change from secular bull to secular bear this year. First leg down should take SPX to the mid 3000s, with a likely brief break of the October 2022 lows to send a message.
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