In keeping these analyst honest, here's Vogel's thoughts from Feb 14, 1997. Pretty gutsy call at the time, considering the way the stock was behaving, but I'd say he nailed this one on the nose.
"WINSTAR COMMUNICATIONS (WCII) 14 5/8 +1/4. Dillon Read's initial "buy" rating and accompanying meteoric price target is failing to
move shares of holding company for WinStar Wireless, WinStar Telecommunications, WinStar Gateway Network, WinStar New Media, and WinStar Global Products. According to analyst Bill Vogel, these shares will rise more than 132% over the next 12 months, to his price target of $34 a share. Expected to drive this rapid appreciation of the stock is the assumption that "they are going to have at least one percent of the whole U.S. telecom market by 2005." Vogel said the company had a sustainable competitive advantage for telephone, as well as high bandwidth applications. By 2005, the analyst expects the market to be worth $350 billion. Based on Vogel's expectations, it appears that investors are taking a very short-term view on the company, as stock has been almost vertically negative over the past two months. Since mid-Dec., Winstar shares have fallen from the $25 level, or about 41%." |
