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Strategies & Market Trends : 2026 TeoTwawKi ... 2032 Darkest Interregnum

GLD 389.75

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Dec 1 4:00 PM EST

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To: marcher who wrote (211647)	2/27/2025 5:26:16 PM
From: TobagoJack	Read Replies (1) of 218131

re <<knives>> zerohedge.com Tech Carnage - Make or Break BY THE MARKET EAR FRIDAY, FEB 28, 2025 - 5:12 The tech puke NASDAQ approaching the 200 day moving average and the lower part of the bigger range. RSI at the most oversold levels since early August. Source: Refinitiv Magnificently oversold MAG broke below the trend line a few sessions ago and has continued to puke. We are actually not far from the 200 day moving average. RSI at the most oversold levels in a long time, with the RSI at 28! It almost makes you want to try catching a few falling MAG knives... Source: Refinitiv The Mag7 fade HF's net exposure to Mag7 is at the lowest levels since April 2023. Source: GS Smoked Small cap tech has absolutely crashed over the past sessions. Chart 1 shows the move lower vs NASDAQ. Chart 2 shows just how oversold this has become, with the RSI at the lowest levels since we can "remember". Source: Refinitiv Source: Refinitiv Chop chop SPX continues chopping around inside the range that has been in place over the past months. We are basically at the lower part of the smaller range, but note there is a bigger support some 50 points lower, where the 200 day comes in. RSI at the most oversold levels since the August crash. Source: Refinitiv Massive de-grossing Gentle reminder via GS: "This month’s notional de-grossing in US TMT – long sales and short covers combined – is tracking to be among the largest on our record, led by risk unwinds in Semis & Semi Equip and Interactive Media & Services names." Source: GS P/L pain Fundamental L/S hedge funds just had the worst 5-day stretch since last August and the second worst drawdown over the past two years (-3.1 Z score). Source: GS Sensitive CTAs ST 6045 (long gone), MT 5887 (this is the most important one) and LT 5413. Table shows Goldman's CTA projections. Full read on the potential selling flow by CTAs here. Source: TME/GS Extreme fear CNN's greed/fear index entered extreme fear yesterday. Haven't seen this much fear in a while, but note the market has tended to bounce during previous episodes of similar levels of fear. Source: Macro micro Imminent upside risk? Sure doesn't feel like it at the moment, but previous sharp moves lower in the AAII bull/bear spread have often resulted in markets bouncing hard. The most recent collapse of the sentiment spread is more extreme than what we have seen in a long time. Chart shows the AAII bull-bear spread vs the NASDAQ. Source: Refinitiv Everybody hedged the downside? Note that skew has come down sharply during the latest sell off in markets. Everybody hedged the downside and are busy monetizing those hedges? Previous "notable" corrections in markets were accompanied with the crowd grabbing downside protection. Source: Refinitiv

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