Stocks that could be safe from tariffs risk compared to their industry peers
Mar. 03, 2025 2:16 PM ET
By: Monica L. Correa, SA News Editor
Morgan Stanley analysts highlighted companies that are believed to be more insulated from tariffs compared to their industry peers and more able to defend their pricing and market share.
Michael J. Wilson, chief U.S. equity strategist and CIO for Morgan Stanley, said his team still sees tariffs “as more of a rotational driver than an index-centric one,” as the impact should be concentrated in a few industries, including consumer discretionary ( XLY), and more specifically autos, technology hardware ( HBGD:CA), and capital goods.
“Services industries across financials ( XLF), software ( XSW), media and entertainment ( SOCL), ( ODDS) and consumer services are less directly impacted, and we maintain our favorable views on these pockets of the market in relative terms,” Wilson said.
However, if the U.S. would implement more tariffs more broadly and materially on China, Mexico, Canada, and other countries, for a longer period, it would weigh on corporate and consumer confidence.
Morgan Stanley has previously estimated that 25% tariffs on imports from Mexico and Canada and 10% tariffs on imports from China could weigh on real GDP growth by 0.7-1.1%.
Also, these tariffs throughout 2026 could reduce bottom-up consensus forward EPS for the S&P 500 ( SP500) by 5-7%, “a dynamic the market would likely price in advance of the earnings impact coming through,” said Wilson.
The following are stocks that should be more insulated from tariffs risk vs. their industry peers:
- Levi Strauss & Co. ( LEVI) – Consensus 2025 EBITDA margin: 14.2
- Lululemon Athletica ( LULU) – Consensus 2025 EBITDA margin: 27.3
- ON Holding ( ONON) – Consensus 2025 EBITDA margin: 17.3
- Tapestry ( TRP) – Consensus 2025 EBITDA margin: 22.3
- Martin Marietta Materials ( MLM) – Consensus 2025 EBITDA margin: 32.7
- United Rentals ( URI) – Consensus 2025 EBITDA margin: 46.3
- Vulcan Materials ( VMC) – Consensus 2025 EBITDA margin: 28.8
- Willscot Holdings ( WSC) – Consensus 2025 EBITDA margin: 44.3
- Eaton Corp. ( ETN) – Consensus 2025 EBITDA margin: 24.2
- Fastenal ( FAST) – Consensus 2025 EBITDA margin: 22.5
- Trane Technologies ( TT) – Consensus 2025 EBITDA margin: 20.0
- Vertiv Holdings ( VRT) – Consensus 2025 EBITDA margin: 22.2
- International Business Machines ( IBM) – Consensus 2025 EBITDA margin: 25.3
- Kornit Digital ( KRNT) – Consensus 2025 EBITDA margin: 5.6
- Seagate Technology Holdings ( STX) – Consensus 2025 EBITDA margin: 24.4
- Teradata Corp. ( TDC) – Consensus 2025 EBITDA margin: 27.1
- NCR Voyix ( VYX) – Consensus 2025 EBITDA margin: 20.3
- Life Time Group Holdings ( LTH) – Consensus 2025 EBITDA margin: 25.9
- Vail Resorts ( MTN) – Consensus 2025 EBITDA margin: 28.8
- Planet Fitness ( PLNT) – Consensus 2025 EBITDA margin: 42.7
- Coherent Corp. ( COHR) – Consensus 2025 EBITDA margin: 22.4
- Five9 ( FIVN) – Consensus 2025 EBITDA margin: 19.4
- Keysight Technologies ( KEYS) – Consensus 2025 EBITDA margin: 28.4
- Lumentum Holdings ( LITE) – Consensus 2025 EBITDA margin: 15.3
- Nice Ltd. ( NICE) – Consensus 2025 EBITDA margin: 35.0
- Nutanix ( NTNX) – Consensus 2025 EBITDA margin: 20.4
- Ringcentral ( RNG) – Consensus 2025 EBITDA margin: 26.5
- Twilio ( TWLO) – Consensus 2025 EBITDA margin: 20.5
- Zoom Communications ( ZM) – Consensus 2025 EBITDA margin: 40.5
- Alcon ( ALC) – Consensus 2025 EBITDA margin: 26.8
- Boston Scientific ( BSX) – Consensus 2025 EBITDA margin: 30.8
- Dexcom ( DXCM) – Consensus 2025 EBITDA margin: 31.2
- Edwards Lifesciences ( EW) – Consensus 2025 EBITDA margin: 30.5
- Organogenesis Holdings ( ORGO) – Consensus 2025 EBITDA margin: 7.2
- Procept BioRobotics ( PRCT) – Consensus 2025 EBITDA margin: -13.5
- RxSight ( RXST) – Consensus 2025 EBITDA margin: -10.4
- Sight Sciences ( SGHT) – Consensus 2025 EBITDA margin: -36.9
- TransMedics Group ( TMDX) – Consensus 2025 EBITDA margin: 19.0
- Albertsons Companies ( ACI) – Consensus 2025 EBITDA margin: 4.9
- BJ’s Wholesale Club ( BJ) – Consensus 2025 EBITDA margin: 5.3
- Dollar General ( DG) – Consensus 2025 EBITDA margin: 7.0
- Kroger ( KR) – Consensus 2025 EBITDA margin: 5.4
- Ulta Beauty ( ULTA) – Consensus 2025 EBITDA margin: 14.4
|
