| | | I doubt that pushing the Russians back to the 2022 borders - and using foreign troops to patrol a demilitarized zone - will ever happen. I have a friend who still maintains some business interests in Petersburg - and manages to travel there from time to time. From what he tells me, it appears that Russia is nowhere close to being in full war mode - civilian life isn’t really different from what it was before the war. Patricia Marins writes that they dramatically increased their production of weapons and various war materials - but their enterprises - many of them - work 12/7, but not 24/7 - the way it was “normal” during WWII.
Moreover, there is no fear that at any point they’ll need to initiate a total mobilization - which was also the norm during WWII. In other words, even though there is recognition that very serious issues are at stake, there is still great potential to further increase their war effort.
I think they will fight until they get the West to agree to their main points - neutrality for Ukraine, demilitarization, denazification (I think, this will be, for the most part, giving Russian speakers who will still live in Ukraine the right to speak Russian, legalize again the Russian Orthodox Church - and so on. They may demand some laws to limit radical anti-Russian political parties. Not sure about this last one).
Moreover, they will insist on keeping Ukraine’s military moderate in size. And - no foreign military personnel on the territory of the country.
As you may remember, the assertion that they would keep the territories which they would conquer came after the collapse of the Istanbul peace talks (courtesy of Boris, Joe - and Zelensky).
IMHO, if Putin ever agreed to foreigners patrolling the demilitarized zone - he would be out of office before the ink was dry. The Russians weren’t fighting and dying to have NATO boys and girls patrol their western national border. |
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