Hi TL,
Let me add what I think I know (aka "What I have heard") on some of your issues. First, I think it is time to ease up on Craft. He is probably the top analyst in this area (I know, damning with faint praise), and has written 7 pieces on Checkfree in the last six months and has invited them to speak at this week's conference. These aren't the actions of an enemy. I've just read the downgrade piece, and he goes into a lot of detail to support his conclusion (downgrade was based on valuation [55XCY2000 EPS] and new MSFT competition). We can disagree with his conclusion, but I don't think it's helpful to question his motives.
My biggest issue with the report had to do with "What's new?" MSFT had clearly been targeting this area since the aborted Intuit acquisition, last year's OFX data interchange standards agreement, and the Marble initiative which was rolled out at last year's Banking Solutions Provider conference in Redmond. I suppose the specifics and the FDC agreement were new information, but hardly a new direction for them.
With regard to the pricing, my understanding is that CKFR gets $4/month/customer from its partner banks, with any the bank keeping any fees it is able to charge its customers to use the service. MSFDC are going to do this for nothing, at least for now, and hope to make it up in electronic bill presentment fees (paid by the billers) plus the collateral cash flow from building internet-related traffic (primarily advertising). We can speculate on how successful they will be at that, but for CKFR, the impact on the $4/month is obvious. Remember that this will be a cheaper service for MSFT to operate because they will rely on the Internet for the network-no VAN to support.
Final note for the conspiracy theorists, it seems to me that with the B of A being one of the leading bill presentment depository concentrators, BARS have a lot more to fear from MSFDC than from CKFR.
Final note on color declaring-I like the CKFR management a lot and think they have a great market position. My guess, though, is that a big processor will buy them to exploit that position. But to quote Roger, what do I know (all above IMHO).
How about them Wolverines! Couldn't show any mercy to an old Ohio boy like Bobby Knight, huh?
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