Gary,
Here is some general information on the past 5 quarters. We have made the comments from time to time how Radica always seems to sell of after it reports on the quarter. This, in fact, is not the case and with a little homework I've concluded the following.
Q4 96' post earnings release, the trend was up.
Q1 97' post earnings release, the trend was down.
Q2 97' post earnings release, the trend was up.
Q3 97' post earnings release, the trend was down.
Q4 97' post earnings release, the trend was down.
Would also add that the progressive increase in volume the week leading up to the report indicates that we should start to see some increase very soon in daily volume. If so, this is going to make it very difficult for the shorts to hold the price down, IMO, for the whole week. In all of the cases above, except Q4 96', the prior to release weeks volume marked an increase in share price as well as a increase in volume vs the prior week price and prior quarter volume.
If the shorts are going to play the game of trying to hold the price down in front of the report, it seems to me that they are not going to have much time to chew between bites. It will become more difficult to do this as the week progresses. Any luck this strategy does have will work in favor of share price post report as the stock will then be just that much more undervalued, provided we are not missing something huge like the factory burned down and Radica forgot to mention it to the shareholders.
In summary, I again do not think the shorts are a big concern. They may be helping to set up a post earnings run if in fact they do manage to hold the price down to some degree pre release. Due to keeping the stock more undervalued as well as a possible squeeze post report. Provided our numbers are reasonable, it will take one hell of a mentality to keep shorting post report for an extended period.
As far as the always sells of after release concept, this isn't true. We are 2 for five and under valued. Also with Q4 97 still needing to be factored in, I think we are due. All IMO and FWIW.
Best to all,
Wayne |
