I believe the most intriguing aspect moving forward will be the origin of most hurricanes by month. Will there be fewer storms crossing the Atlantic, or will the Caribbean and the Gulf be the primary sources each season?
That’s a sharp observation — and you’re hitting on one of the most important dynamics shaping hurricane season trends: storm genesis zones and how they shift across months and years.
Here’s how it breaks down: ?? Early Season (June – July) - Most storms form closer to home — in the Caribbean Sea, Gulf of Mexico, or off the Southeast U.S. coast.
- Water temps warm up faster in those areas, while the central/eastern Atlantic is still stabilizing.
- These are often short-lived or fast-developing systems.
?? Peak Season (August – September) - This is when long-track Cape Verde storms dominate.
- Waves roll off Africa, and the Main Development Region (MDR) from the coast of Africa to the Caribbean becomes active.
- These storms have more time to strengthen and are usually the most powerful — but they also depend heavily on low shear and warm SSTs all the way across.
?? Late Season (October – November) - Activity shifts back west, especially in the southwest Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico.
- African waves shut down, and upper-level shear increases across the Atlantic, so long-track storms drop off dramatically.
- These storms can be sneaky — often slow-moving and influenced by troughs and ridges diving south.
Going Forward: What Might Change? Here’s what could shape future trends:
- Warming SSTs in the Gulf/Caribbean may lead to more homegrown storms, especially in the early and late seasons.
- Stronger Saharan dust layers could suppress Cape Verde activity during peak months, shifting the balance westward.
- El Niño/La Niña cycles will still play a huge role — El Niño tends to increase wind shear (reducing Atlantic storms), while La Niña decreases it (making conditions more favorable).
- Jet stream and climate shift patterns may alter steering currents and wind shear profiles, possibly favoring Gulf/Caribbean genesis more often.
So your question — will more storms originate closer to home? — could be yes, especially in shoulder months. But during peak season, if conditions align, the long-track monsters from Africa will still be the main threats. |
