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From: Julius Wong4/1/2025 8:26:29 PM
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Recession odds at 40% after ‘disconcerting’ data, Moody’s chief economist says

Apr. 01, 2025 4:51 PM ET
By: Carla Mozee, SA News Editor

Moody’s Chief Economist Mark Zandi sees a 40% probability of the U.S. economy falling into a recession this year on the back of the Trump administration’s implementation of trading tariffs and government employment cuts.

Zandi had put recession odds at 15% when 2025 kicked off, he said on X (formerly Twitter) this week. Recent economic data are "disconcerting,” with reports showing sliding consumer confidence, slowing consumer spending and persistently high inflation, he said.

“The intensifying trade war and DOGE cuts are behind all this and with last week’s announcement of big tariff increases on vehicle imports and the coming reciprocal tariffs, things are sure to get worse,” Zandi said.

Billing April 2 as “Liberation Day,” U.S. President Donald Trump is slated to outline reciprocal levies on products coming into the U.S. from countries worldwide. One plan officials discussed was for a 20% global tariff on almost every import, The Wall Street Journal reported.

“Recession remains less likely than not only because layoffs remain low and job and income growth positive. This Friday’s jobs report for March will give us a sense of whether this continues,” Zandi said.

“Anything south of 100K [payrolls gain] would be worrisome, and anything north of 200K would be welcome,” the economist said.

Goldman Sachs' economists this week lifted their 12-month recession odds to 35% from 20%, and cut its 2025 GDP projection.
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