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Strategies & Market Trends : Ted Warren's Investolator
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To: robert b furman who wrote (1680)4/4/2025 4:11:47 PM
From: Harvey Specter  Read Replies (4) of 1789
 
What do you make of the market decline this year? Do you think we will go into a major 2008-2009 style bear market or a more shallow bear market like 1962? Personally I think this is like the 1962 bear market which was triggered by JFK talking tough to steel companies (while the current market decline has been caused by tariffs) and Ted Warren suggested in his book that perhaps Wall Street insiders wanted to teach JFK a lesson. The reason I think this will be a mild bear market similar to 1962 is because there have been financial stocks all around the globe that have been under accumulation over the past several years.

Financial stocks are about as cyclical as you can get and the smart money wouldn't be accumulating them if they thought the world was heading into a major recession or depression. In his book Ted Warren says for a depression to occur pretty much everything has to be trading at a high level. Notice the difference in price action between 2007-2009 and the price action in recent years in the financial stocks below. They were getting distributed at high levels in the early 2000's before getting marked down starting in 2007 ahead of the Great Recession. The exact opposite has occurred recently - they have been accumulated for several years and are just starting to get marked up from low levels. The last image is what different sectors looked like in the 1920's boom then bust - notice they were all trading at a high level in 1929 (including financials/banks) unlike now.



















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