OT. I call this OT because I am just trying to figure out what to do.
1. Assume that there will be a recession, not limited to USA.
2. Inflation.
3. Unemployment -- both government and non government.
4. All stock prices probably will be punished.
My holding have been pretty defensive for years.
i.e.treasuries and utilities 38% and reits 45%
I doubt many of you are as wimpy.
And I have no income worries.
Why reits? Since 2008 I decided I'd rather own shares of the building owner than the tenant. What do I sell now, if anything?
As an example -- retail reits. What if clothing retailers are whacked? My grocery anchored retail reits (REG BRX KRG KIM have only around 5%-6% apparel leases. They tout their % of necessities. Their PEs of 10-12 are in diff ballpark of ROSS PE of 20, as an example. (another reason to own BRX over ROSS.) If ROSS closes a few stores, not a big deal to BRX (1.7% of their leases are ROSS). Plus 4+ average lease term. So I shouldn't worry too much about fundamentals. But all stock prices will get nailed in a recession. ????????
I go thru my individual stock list and I see no easy things to sell. I may just dump remaining ETFs, which are still at 4% of portfolio.
#################
>>> JPMorgan has raised the odds of a global recession this year to 60 percent.
Lawrence Summers:
If you were a manufacturing company in the United States and your next investment is going to be, let’s say, a components plant, should you put that components plant in Mexico, where it’s cheaper? Not if there’s a 25 percent tariff. But should you put it in the United States, where it’s more expensive? What if the tariff comes off? So either way, you run substantial risk of just having stranded investments. And that’s happening across the board. So this is the instability of policy. The fact that nobody knows what’s coming next makes a recession certainly a whole lot more likely.
me: Since "nobody knows what's coming", how can we make make individual investment decisions? |
