I think of myself as super aggressive, super ballsy when it comes to investing. Don't mind being contrarian, catching a falling knife etc. But I agree that buying right now is utter madness.
Not enough has been "priced in" for me to feel comfortable. Heck, if I were a short seller, I'd be having the time of my life. Nike, at current prices, offers far more downside than upside - it could fall another 60% (and still be quite an optimistic valuation given the tariffs). ft.com - worth a read if you have the FT.
At the moment, only 10% has been wiped off the S&P 500 - but, logically, earnings are going to deteriorate far more than 10% and multiples are going to come down because of the uncertainty etc. Simple strategy to me seems to be to hoard cash.
I think markets expect that countries will reach deals with Trump which is possible, but if not, as a a current buyer, you're screwed lol. What's the upside? A couple percent, maybe, but at least another 20% down if the situation doesn't change? The bull case makes no sense to me. ( - AND news outlets suggest that countries are thinking about how to retalliate against the USA. Monday could be very, very red if "surprise" countries signal they're willing to "stand up" to America. Unlikely, maybe, but it's just more unaccounted for downside risk.)
Currently, fwd S&P 500 P/E is c.18x which accounts for earnings growth (totally unrealistic). Analysts will be quick to revise that. Maybe another downward catalyst - although, "smart money" probably already has reacted. Was reading that it's mainly retail buying.
FWIW, I cannot predict the economy as my posts from yrs ago will show - but a slow down + higher prices + lower asset prices makes the most sense to me. Non-public sector unemployment is tricky for me to say.
Idk about interest rates. Everyone expects them to go down because that's supposedly Trump's "big plan", but what if the inflationary effect is larger than the economic slow down? Could leave the Fed in a tricky spot. Manage inflation or growth?
And what about the dollar? So far, it's unexpectedly weakened as investors lose faith in "America". Does that potentially mean inflation? Tricky to say, for sure. But lots to watch.
This has been typed fast - sorry if it's incoherent. Truthfully, I have no idea about a lot of stuff - but that makes it clear to me that I shouldn't be buying. |
