| | | Market Snapshot
| Dow | 40608.45 | +2962.86 | (7.87%) | | Nasdaq | 17124.97 | +1857.06 | (12.16%) | | SP 500 | 5456.90 | +474.13 | (9.52%) | | 10-yr Note | -29/32 | 4.40 |
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| | NYSE | Adv 2433 | Dec 111 | Vol 2.1 bln | | Nasdaq | Adv 3670 | Dec 683 | Vol 13 bln |
Industry Watch
| Strong: Technology, Discretionary, Industrials, Consumer Staples, Materials |
| | Weak: -- |
Moving the Market
--Huge gains in response to Trump administration announcing pause on additional, country-specific tariffs that went into effect at midnight
-- Short-covering activity contributing to big surge in stocks
-- Monitoring choppy action in the Treasury market; positive response to today's $39 billion 10-yr note reopening
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Closing Summary
09-Apr-25 16:25 ET
Dow +2962.86 at 40608.45, Nasdaq +1857.06 at 17124.97, S&P +474.13 at 5456.90
[BRIEFING.COM] It was a huge day for stocks. The Nasdaq Composite soared nearly 12%, the S&P 500 spiked 9.3%, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average bounced nearly 3,000 points.
The monumental rally followed President Trump's announcement of a 90-day suspension on recently imposed tariffs, reducing them to 10% for countries that have not retaliated against the U.S. However, the rate on imports from China increased to 125% from 104%.
The massive upside moves were aided by short-covering activity after the sharp declines of late, along with a big surge in the mega cap space.
Many of the most influential stocks in the market logged double-digit percentage gains. NVIDIA (NVDA 114.33, +18.03, +18.7%), Apple (AAPL 198.85, +26.43, +15.3%), Tesla (TSLA 272.10, +50.24, +22.6%), Microsoft (MSFT 390.49, +35.93, +10.1%), and Amazon.com (AMZN 191.10, +20.44, +12.0%) were huge beneficiaries of the surge in buying.
All 11 S&P 500 sectors closed at least 3.9% higher. The technology sector led the upside charge, registering a 14.2% gain, followed by consumer discretionary (+11.4%) and communication services (+10.0%).
The huge move up today was helped in part by the understanding that the $39 billion 10-yr note auction was met with strong demand, particularly from foreign buyers. The 10-yr yield hit 4.50% and settled at 4.40%, which is still 14 basis points higher than yesterday.
Participants were also digesting the FOMC's Minutes from the March meeting which showed that members generally saw increased downside risks to employment and economic growth and upside risks to inflation while indicating that high uncertainty surrounded their economic outlooks. The minutes garnered a muted response.
- Dow Jones Industrial Average: -4.6% YTD
- S&P 500: -7.2% YTD
- S&P Midcap 400: -10.3% YTD
- Nasdaq Composite: -11.3% YTD
- Russell 2000: -14.2% YTD
Reviewing today's economic data:
- Weekly MBA Mortgage Applications Index 20.0%; Prior -1.6%
- February Wholesale Inventories 0.3% (Briefing.com consensus 0.3%); Prior 0.8%
Thursday's economic lineup features:
- 8:30 ET: March CPI (Briefing.com consensus 0.1%; prior 0.2%), Core CPI (Briefing.com consensus 0.3%; prior 0.2%), weekly Initial Claims (Briefing.com consensus 225,000; prior 219,000), and Continuing Claims (prior 1.903 mln)
- 10:30 ET: Weekly natural gas inventories (prior +29 bcf)
- 14:00 ET: March Treasury Budget (prior -$307.0 bln)
Climb continues into the close
09-Apr-25 15:35 ET
Dow +2877.46 at 40523.05, Nasdaq +1832.56 at 17100.48, S&P +468.56 at 5451.33
[BRIEFING.COM] The major equity indices took another turn higher in recent trading. The Nasdaq Composite is higher by a whopping 12%.
The Treasury market didn't have as strong a reaction to the tariff pause as stocks. The 2-yr yield settled 21 basis points higher at 3.95% and the 10-yr yield settled 14 basis points higher at 4.40%.
On a related note, today's $39 billion 10-yr note reopening met excellent demand. Thursday's calendar features a $22 billion 30-yr Treasury bond reopening with results at 1:00 p.m. ET.
Stock surge continues
09-Apr-25 15:00 ET
Dow +2366.26 at 40011.85, Nasdaq +1412.52 at 16680.44, S&P +363.80 at 5346.57
[BRIEFING.COM] The market got what it wanted on the tariff front and continues to surge in response. The initial driving force behind huge move higher is the news that the Trump administration paused the additional tariff on individual countries that went into effect at midnight for 90 days, excluding China.
The 10% sweeping tariffs on all countries remain in play during this period and the rate on imports from China increased to 125% from 104%.
Short-covering activity has accelerated the upside momentum. Also, the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) dropped to 35.48 as investors unwind some hedges.
FOMC flags inflation risks, growth uncertainty; S&P 500 holds gains
09-Apr-25 14:30 ET
Dow +2381.91 at 40027.50, Nasdaq +1449.73 at 16717.65, S&P +370.54 at 5353.31
[BRIEFING.COM] Markets are consolidating their tariff-pause jump following the release of the FOMC's Minutes from the March meeting which showed that participants generally saw increased downside risks to employment and economic growth and upside risks to inflation while indicating that high uncertainty surrounded their economic outlooks.
Currently, the S&P 500 (+7.44%) is in second place, up now about 370 points.
Other important points from the Minutes included: In their discussion of inflation developments, participants noted that inflation had eased significantly over the past two years but remained somewhat elevated relative to the Committee's 2 percent longer-run goal. Some participants observed that inflation data over the first two months of this year were higher than they had expected. Also, various participants commented that high uncertainty had the potential to damp consumer spending as well as business hiring and investment activities or that inflation was likely to be boosted by increased tariffs.
Some participants observed, however, that the Committee may face difficult tradeoffs if inflation proved to be more persistent while the outlook for growth and employment weakened. Several participants emphasized that elevated inflation could prove to be more persistent than expected.
Yields have held firm compared to their pre-Minutes levels, the yield on the benchmark 10-yr note now up about nine basis points at 4.396%.
Gold rallies $89 despite tariff pause, settles at $3,079 as markets soar ahead of Fed Minutes
09-Apr-25 13:55 ET
Dow +2114.66 at 39760.25, Nasdaq +1291.34 at 16559.26, S&P +330.81 at 5313.58
[BRIEFING.COM] Stocks remain aggressively higher following President Trump's decision to put a 90-day pause on reciprocal tariffs for countries angling to negotiate with the U.S. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite (+8.46%) is up more than 1,200 points with the FOMC Minutes for the March 18-19 meeting due at the top of the hour.
Gold futures settled $89.20 higher (+3.0%) at $3,079.40/oz, cooling a bit following the aforementioned tariff pause news but still handily higher.
Meanwhile, the U.S. Dollar Index is down -0.2% to $102.78.
Walmart shares jump as reaffirm of Q1 and FY26 growth outlook eases tariff concerns (WMT)
Ahead of its Investment Community Meeting, Walmart (WMT) eased investors' intensifying tariff-related concerns, reaffirming its 1Q26 sales growth guidance of 3-4% and reiterating its annual sales and operating income growth outlook, which had called for growth of 3-4% and 3.5-5.5%, respectively. WMT did pull its Q1 operating income forecast, however, stating that the range of outcomes has widened due to less favorable category mix and a desire to maintain flexibility to invest in price as tariffs are implemented.
Still, WMT believes it is well-positioned to weather this storm, with CEO John Rainey commenting that the company typically gains market share during economic downturns, thanks to its low-price competitive edge.
- Even at the expense of short-term profits, investing in price to maintain affordability remains a key tenet of WMT's strategy. WMT's efforts to shift and diversify its supply chain will help to mitigate the damage from tariffs. Currently, WMT sources approximately 60% of its products from China, which now faces the stiffest tariffs with a 104% duty charged on Chinese imports. In prior years, China accounted for about 80% of WMT's products. WMT has turned to countries such as India, Vietnam, and Mexico to source more of its products.
- In addition to a more diverse and efficient supply chain, WMT is focused on expanding its e-Commerce channel to drive higher margins and profits. The company's investments are paying off here, as illustrated by its healthy U.S. e-Commerce growth rates over the past four quarters: +20% in 4Q25, +22% in 3Q25, +22% in 2Q25, and +17% in 1Q25.
- Mr. Rainey's statement about WMT becoming stronger during economic downturns rings true when looking at the company's financial performance during the pandemic. For instance, in FY21, U.S. comparable sales grew by a robust 8.6% while EPS increased by 9%. During this period, WMT gained market share across multiple categories, including groceries and household essentials, as higher-income shoppers turned to value retailers for affordability.
- The same scenario is now unfolding for WMT. In fact, in 4Q25, households earning over $100,000 annually accounted for 75% of the company's market share gains. WMT also credited high-income shoppers for contributing to the 20% increase in U.S. e-Commerce sales last quarter as this group utilized services like curbside pickup and fast home deliveries.
WMT's reaffirmation of Q1 sales growth guidance and its FY26 sales and operating income growth outlook has put the retailer's resilience and stability under the spotlight. Similar to past economic downturns, the company is well-positioned to emerge as a winner in the retail space, driven by its steadfast goal of maintaining affordability, a more diverse supply chain, and e-Commerce expansion.
Delta Air Lines' revenue diversification drives better-than-expected Q1 results and Q2 outlook (DAL)
Against an increasingly turbulent macroeconomic climate and as associated downturn in domestic leisure travel demand, Delta Air Lines (DAL) flew past analysts' muted 1Q25 EPS and revenue estimates. On March 10, the airliner slashed its Q1 guidance, resetting the bar lower and signaling that it may be in for a bumpy landing this year following a post-pandemic boom period. On that note, DAL refrained from reaffirming its FY25 guidance due to tariff-related uncertainties. The company had previously guided for FY25 EPS of greater than $7.35 and free cash flow of over $4.0 bln.
- Weaker consumer confidence and softness within price sensitive customers led to a 5% decrease in domestic leisure travel demand and DAL isn't anticipating an upswing in this category any time soon. The company's most price-sensitive customers -- those flying in the main cabin on non-peak flights -- have pulled back on spending, significantly impacting domestic bookings. Consequently, in an effort to protect margins, DAL revised its capacity growth plans for 2H25 to remain flat compared to 2024 levels.
- In 1Q25, capacity, or Available Seat Miles (ASMs), grew by 4.2% to 68.3 bln, reflecting moderate capacity expansion despite DAL's cautious view on demand. The combination of capacity growth and slowing domestic leisure travel demand pressured DAL's unit revenue (TRASM), which slipped by 1% yr/yr, down from flat last quarter.
- Some pockets of strength remain, though, and DAL's revenue diversification strategy is providing it with some resiliency. For instance, premium revenue grew by 7% yr/yr compared to a 3% decline for main cabin, driven by strong demand for Delta One and Premium Select premium cabins. Relatedly, DAL continues to see strength in its loyalty program, generating record revenue of $2.0 bln from its American Express (AXP) partnership.
- DAL's substantial international business (about 40% of total revenue) is also providing it with an edge. International routes are showing resilience despite global trade uncertainties, as illustrated by the mid-single-digit revenue increase for DAL's international business. The Pacific region was particularly strong with revenue jumping by 16%.
- Although DAL is taking a cautious approach to its outlook, its in-line Q2 EPS and revenue guidance is likely viewed as better-than-feared and is providing the stock with a spark following a 44% nosedive since its Q4 report in January. Along with strength in premium and international, lower fuel costs are helping to support DAL's profits. On a yr/yr basis, DAL's fuel costs slid by 7% as the average fuel price per gallon decreased to $2.47 from $2.79.
DAL delivered better-than-expected Q1 results, buoyed by growth in premium travel and international routes, which helped to offset the downturn in domestic leisure travel. Corporate travel remains soft and is now flat yr/yr with the outlook growing cloudier as tariff-related uncertainties weigh. It's shaping up to be a difficult year for the airline industry, but DAL's more diverse revenue streams should enable it to outperform many of its competitors.
Simply Good Foods looking simply good on sizeable EPS beat, OWYN is coming into its own (SMPL)
Simply Good Foods (SMPL +9%) shares are making a strong move after reporting upside results for Q2 (Feb). The weight loss nutrition company (brands include Atkins, Quest, OWYN) reported its largest EPS upside in the past ten quarters. Revenue rose a brisk 15.2% yr/yr to $359.7 mln, which was also better than expected. In fairness, that growth was aided by the 2024 acquisition of Only What You Need (OWYN), a plant-based protein shake brand. Organic sales were up 4.4%, driven by Quest.
- SMPL said that growth at Quest and OWYN are more than offsetting declines at Atkins. First half retail sales for Quest (60% of sales) and OWYN, which collectively represent 70% of sales, increased 12% and 57%, respectively. SMPL says it's executing well, adding new doors, winning with innovation and driving brand awareness and household penetration. Atkins has been a meaningful drag on growth, and SMPL plans to rightsize investment levels on the brand.
- SMPL was quite bullish on OWYN during the call, calling it one of the fastest growing brands of scale in the category. Also, SMPL thinks the brand is in its early innings of growth.
- A big reason is because the brand's superior taste is increasingly attracting mainstream consumers, which make up the lion's share of this high growth category. Also, the brand has low-single digit household penetration and awareness. SMPL remains confident it can double sales of the core business in 3-4 years.
- SMPL remains excited by the trajectory of the nutritional snacking category in general. Total Nutritional Snacking category growth was 12% in Q2, marking the 16th consecutive quarter with category growth of at least high-single digits. SMPL says category growth reflects the continued mainstreaming of consumer demand for high-protein, low- sugar, low-carb food and beverage options. SMPL sees its three brands as being aligned with these consumer megatrends.
In terms of the stock reaction today, we think the company reaffirming full year guidance for revs and EBITDA is helping to fuel today's move. The company said it expects FY25 sales to be driven primarily by volume. To reaffirm, despite inflation and macro issues, is calming investors' nerves.
That is especially true considering that the price points for SMPL's products are on the high side of the spectrum. It would make sense for consumers to pare back on high priced weight loss products, but SMPL appears to be confident and investors are responding to that confidence. We also think SMPL's bullish outlook on OWYN and growth at Quest are adding to today's move.
RPM Inc misses Q3 estimates as weather disruptions and focus on cash flow pressure earnings (RPM)
RPM Inc. (RPM), a manufacturer of specialty chemicals for the industrial, construction, and consumer markets, experienced a combination of weather-related headwinds and operational issues in 3Q25, resulting in EPS and revenue missing expectations. Making matters worse, the company also guided for flat yr/yr revenue in Q4 to $2.01 bln, falling short of estimates as macroeconomic conditions remain challenging.
- The company's exposure to weather-sensitive construction markets worked against it in Q3. Revenue for the Construction Products Group (CPG), which makes sealants, adhesives, concrete mixtures, and roofing and flooring systems, fell by 4.5% yr/yr to $473.4 mln. Unseasonable cold weather in the southern U.S., in addition to wildfires in the west, reduced construction and project activity.
- Meanwhile, the Specialty Products Group saw a 10.1% drop in revenue to $158.7 mln driven by significantly softer demand for disaster restoration products. In the year-earlier period, freeze-related flooding drove higher sales for these products, which didn't repeat in 3Q25. Additionally, transitional costs related to the consolidation of eight manufacturing plants added to the problem, causing segment adjusted EBITDA to plunge by 44.5% yr/yr.
- On a consolidated basis, RPM's adjusted EBIT declined by 29% to $78.2 mln and adjusted EPS dove by nearly 33% to $0.35. Besides the lower revenue, a main cause behind the decline in profitability is RPM's focus on cash flow generation under its MAP 2025 initiative. The company generated $91.5 mln in operating cash flow in Q3 -- marking the second highest Q3 total in its history -- due in part to its disciplined inventory management. However, that disciplined inventory management, which led to an inventory reduction of $36 mln, also caused RPM to reduce production levels, leading to lower fixed cost absorption and compressed margins.
- On a brighter note, the company is seeing pockets of positive momentum, and it's well-positioned to benefit from the trend of consumers and businesses looking to extend asset life amid an uncertain and volatile economic backdrop. Bolstered by new product launches and efficiency improvements, RPM anticipates modest earnings growth in Q4 with more substantial improvements expected when volume growth returns.
RPM's Q3 results reflect recent challenges from weather disruptions and strategic trade-offs under its MAP 2025 initiative, with strong cash flow generation offset by margin pressures. Plant consolidations and an associated drop in fixed cost absorption added to RPM's troubles. However, more favorable yr/yr revenue and EPS comparisons in the coming quarters should work in RPM's favor.
Dave & Buster's Q4 results reflect ongoing challenges, but lower spending plans provide hope (PLAY)
With shares hovering around multi-year lows and down by nearly 75% on a yr/yr basis, expectations were at rock bottom levels ahead of Dave & Buster's (PLAY) 4Q25 earnings report. Against this bearish backdrop, the entertainment and dining company delivered better-than-feared results, offering some hope that recently appointed CEO Kevin Sheehan has the beleaguered company heading in the right direction. Although PLAY didn't provide formal EPS or revenue guidance, it did forecast a decline in FY26 capex to less than $220 mln compared to $330.2 mln in FY25, which has investors cheering.
PLAY's results were far from spectacular -- comparable store sales fell by 9.4% and the company missed revenue expectations -- but the anticipated decline in capex and some encouraging commentary surrounding foot traffic and food and beverage sales trends in March and April has created optimism.
- Mr. Sheehan, who replaced Chris Morris as CEO last December, has implemented a "back-to-basics" strategy that aims to undo the missteps of the past few years. In his view, PLAY overwhelmed customers with too many menu changes and store remodels, resulting in seven consecutive quarters of negative comps. The back-to-basics strategy reduces menu complexity be eliminating low-performing items and improving kitchen efficiency, while also only targeting high-return locations for remodeling, providing some relief to capex.
- Under Morris's leadership, PLAY was aggressive with store remodels, completing 44 remodels since 2023. On the positive side, the remodels have shown strong results, outperforming non-remodeled locations by approximately 9% post-renovation. The issue, though, is that the high upfront costs and incremental labor and marketing costs associated with the remodels were straining PLAY's margins and earnings.
- In Q4, operating margins plunged to 8.3% from 15.0% in the prior year period, while EPS fell by 22% to $0.69. By avoiding overextension in its remodeling plans, PLAY should be able to stabilize its margins. Whether its menu simplification efforts and new initiatives like "Eat & Play Combo" can reverse the negative comp trend remains to be seen. The improved foot traffic and sales trends in March and April are a positive sign, but PLAY may be hard-pressed to maintain that momentum given the intensifying macro headwinds.
PLAY's Q4 results continued to reflect consumer related and operational challenges. However, the company's back-to-basics strategy to reverse prior missteps and its more conservative capex plans for FY26 is providing optimism that healthier margins and profits may be on the horizon.
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