Advantage Liberal: What advanced modelling tells us about why the Liberals are winning
April 11, 2025
With just two weeks left in the campaign, the data suggests Mark Carney and the Liberal Party are within striking distance of defying expectations if just a few months ago and pulling off a fourth straight election win. While many observers had written off the Liberals, new analysis offers a more nuanced picture—one that highlights the opportunity ahead for Carney, if he can consolidate his strengths and overcome a an electorate anxious about the uncertainty created by Donald Trump and still reeling from the affordability crisis that gripped the nation for the past two years.
We recently ran a binary logistic regression model to better understand what’s driving support for the Liberals in this election. In plain terms, a logistic regression is a way of identifying which factors increase or decrease the likelihood that someone will vote Liberal. It’s a method that lets us separate the signal from the noise—to distinguish which perceptions and personal characteristics really matter in predicting vote choice.
Rather than just looking at who says they’ll vote Liberal, we isolate the variables most associated with that decision and evaluate their strength, while controlling for everything else. It’s like trying to understand what ingredients make a voter more likely to pick Carney’s name on the ballot—economic views, issue priorities, education, gender, and personal impressions all get thrown into the mix. The model helps us see which ones matter most.
What did we find?
It’s the Economy, and Carney The most consistent and powerful predictor of a Liberal vote is a sense that Mark Carney is the better choice to manage the economy and deal with Donald Trump. Among all the variables we tested—from education to gender to impressions of Pierre Poilievre—Carney’s perceived strength on economic management was the standout.
Voters who believe Carney is better equipped to grow the economy, deal with Trump, and even help manage the cost of living are significantly more likely to support the Liberals. That tells us something critical about the current campaign landscape: people are still very open to economic leadership, and Carney’s background in global finance and economics is an incredibly powerful asset.
It’s also worth noting that Carney’s perceived competence extends beyond the economy. Voters who see him as stronger on climate change and housing are also more inclined to support him. But economic credibility and dealing with Trump remain the foundation.
Likeability—and the Personal Brand—Matters Another powerful predictor is how people feel about Mark Carney himself. Those with a positive impression of him are far more likely to vote Liberal. In fact, this was one of the strongest effects in the model. In an election shaped by a growing precarity mindset and a general sourness about the state of the country, personal impressions can make or break a candidate.
What this tells us is that the Liberals don’t just have a policy pitch—they have a messenger who, when seen in a favourable light, can dramatically improve their chances. For someone that barely 10% could recognize when he announced his candidacy to lead the Liberals, Carney is now a definite asset for the Liberals. Where he is known and is liked, support is solid.
Interestingly, having a negative view of Pierre Poilievre also pushes some voters toward the Liberals, but not nearly as powerfully. This isn’t shaping up to be a “stop Poilievre” campaign in the way past elections were framed around “stopping Harper.” The Liberal vote, at least for now, appears more driven by pro-Carney sentiment than anti-Conservative sentiment.
A Party Still Tied to Its Past But it’s not all smooth sailing for the Liberals. One of the strongest negative predictors of a Liberal vote is a sense that the country is headed in the wrong direction. Those who feel Canada is on the wrong track are far less likely to vote Liberal, regardless of what they think about Carney.
This is a crucial insight. Even though Justin Trudeau is no longer Prime Minister, the weight of his government’s legacy still hangs over the Liberal brand. Voters’ dissatisfaction with the status quo remains a major barrier.
In this context, Carney’s challenge is clear: he’s had to convince voters that a vote for him is not a vote for more of the same. And so far, he’s done that sufficiently.
Education Helps, Demographics Less So Support for the Liberals is also more likely among those with a university education. That fits with long-standing trends, particularly in urban and suburban ridings where progressive, university-educated voters have traditionally supported the Liberals in past elections. However, gender, age, and even indicators of precarity had limited influence on vote intention in the model – all else being equal.
That doesn’t mean these demographic groups aren’t important. It simply means they don’t independently predict a Liberal vote as strongly as issue-based perceptions or personal impressions of the leaders. Campaigns that rely solely on micro-targeting by age or gender might miss the bigger picture: people are choosing based on who they trust to manage the economy, guide the country through this unprecedent moment, and fix the problems they care most about.
So What Happens Next? With two weeks left in the campaign, Carney and the Liberals have the advantage and are posed to win, despite several factors working against them.
On one hand, the electorate is deeply unhappy. Most Canadians believe the country is on the wrong track, and that’s a tough environment for any incumbent party—even with a new leader. But on the other hand, Carney has something rare: a profile that signals competence, a sense that he’s different from Trudeau, and the ability to speak credibly about the issues people care about most—Trump, cost of living, housing, and the economy.
The data shows that the Liberals aren’t winning today because people feel nostalgic for Trudeau-era policies or because they deeply dislike Poilievre. They’re winning because people believe Mark Carney might be the right person to get Canada back on course and defend it from the threats posed by Donald Trump. This statistical model clearly validates that.
That’s the story of this campaign. And if Carney can make that story clearer to more voters in the next two weeks, he can lock down the victory.
abacusdata.ca |
