Plunging oil prices force U.S. oil industry to consider cutting production, jobs
Despite President Trump's exhortations to "drill, baby, drill," U.S. shale oil producers are facing their most serious crisis since the pandemic, as the sudden oil price selloff triggered in part by President Trump's trade war has pushed parts of the sector to the brink of failure, industry executives warned this week.
Oil markets have been hit with a potential "double whammy" of declining demand from a tariff-induced economic slowdown combined with new supplies, with OPEC+ announcing last week it planned to raise production faster than expected in the coming months.
Analysts say Trump's decision to leave tariffs on China, the world's biggest oil importer, will continue to loom over global crude demand prospects.
The U.S. Energy Information Administration this week sharply cut its estimate of U.S. crude prices to $63.88/bbl for 2025 from a prior forecast of $70.68/bb, and lowered its forecast for global oil consumption growth for this year by 400K bbl/day to 900K bbl/day.
Tariffs also will make it more expensive to buy steel and equipment, which could further discourage drilling unless oil prices rise substantially.
Benchmark U.S. crude has fallen nearly 14% so far this month, leaving the price below the level many producers in Texas say they need to break even and even causing concern that the industry could be forced to idle rigs.
Rystad Energy said this week that many U.S. shale producers faced breakeven costs of ~$62/bbl when debt servicing and dividend payments were included, and "in reality, even a company operating on $40 breakeven acreage would be inclined to slow down activity when prices fall below $65/bbl, as their level of dividend coverage would be at risk," Rystad said.
Energy prices remain well below levels producers say they need before they substantially increase activity and will not get there any time soon, according to the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City's latest quarterly survey, which said the energy firms surveyed need to see oil at $85/bbl and natural gas at $5.10/MMBtu before they significantly ramp up drilling.
"If oil does go into lower $60s or upper $50s, public independents that are already capital disciplined are going to have to cut their budget and cut rigs," said Bryan Sheffield, founder of energy investors Formentera Partners and former Parsely Energy CEO.
"If prices get sub-$60 and stay there, we'll see a definite drop in the rig count," Marauder Capital managing partner Roe Patterson said. "They've definitely opened the door for the OPEC countries to gain market share here, and it's an inadvertent, self-inflicted wound."
While it may cost under $40/bbl to drill in the best parts of the Permian Basin, new well drilling in North Dakota would require oil prices at ~$57/bbl, according to Wood Mackenzie, meaning operations in those basins would be more at risk at current price levels. |
