| | | re <<My relatively uninformed idea is that gold in the ground is better value than gold in a bunker at present>>
the imperative to extract gold from rocks is false, costs too much, in terms of social, pollution, etc etc
much better for you, should the dire arise, to just GetMoreGold from many-enough on this thread
this day in HK, a public holiday Friday through Monday inclusive, is noice, and I shall dwell on ... let me see ... ah, yes, gold and a few other mega trends
Updates from behind the curtain ...
zerohedge.com
Putting Gold’s Recent Rally (+25 Percent YTD) into Historical Context
BY THE MARKET EAR
FRIDAY, APR 18, 2025 - 1:45
45 years later
It took 45 years to get there, but inflation-adjusted Gold prices are back at an all-time high, surpassing the prior peak from 1980.
Source: Compound
Crushing bonds
Gold has crushed bond returns over the last 4-5 years. Since March 2020: Gold +110%, TLT-43%.
Source: Refinitiv
Putting gold’s recent rally (+25 percent YTD) into historical context
The following chart shows gold’s trailing 100-day price returns over the last 20 years. Gold’s average 100-day return over the last 20 years has been +4.1 percent, with a standard deviation of 10.0 percentage points around that mean. This puts the 2 standard deviation upside level at 24.1 points.
Source: Data Trek
Gold rallies we remember
Gold rarely rallies by more than 24.1% (2 sigma) in a given 100-day period but, when it does, there is a specific reason, and we have highlighted those in the previous graph.
1. 2005 – 2009: Excessive financial markets speculation that led to a US real estate bubble, followed by the 2008 Global Financial Crisis and Great Recession.
2. 2011: Greek Debt Crisis
3. 2020: Pandemic Crisis
Not, however, yet at the extreme levels...
"Gold is up 26% over the last 100 days, consistent with past crisis periods. It is not, however, yet at the extreme levels of prior volatile periods in capital markets. For example, in early January 2008, gold was up 38 percent over the prior 100 days and in early August 2020 it had rallied by 37 pct over the same timeframe." (Data Trek)
Remaining bullish
"We have been positive on gold for almost 2 years now, and we remain so now even with its remarkable year to date gains. Our thesis continues to be that gold’s unique qualities – it is priced in dollars and non-sanctionable or -confiscateable – are highly valuable to a wide range of buyers. This is the exact dynamic playing out now. As for a near term price target, gold would need to see $3,700/oz very soon before it is up +40 percent over the prior 100 days (the historical maximum near-term crisis move). That is 10 percent higher than current levels, and reason enough to continue to own gold here."(Data Trek)
$100bn gold king
Main gold ETF, GLD, just crossed the magical $100bn level.
Source: Bloomberg
Overbought
Gold is reaching overbought levels again, but note we have seen more overbought levels, and as we all know, overbought tends to stay overbought for longer than most think possible.
Source: Refinitiv
They didn't "open" gold
Gold vs open interest needs little commenting.
Source: GS
Gold vs SPY
Zooming out for some context...
Source: Refinitiv
Golden tech or golden gold?
Gold vs NASDAQ ratio has surged lately, but zoom out and you can hardly see it on the longer term chart. And it just broke above the 4 year range...
Source: Refinitiv
Missing out
Physical has left digital gold way behind lately...
Source: Refinitiv
Comeback kid
Gold ETFs rising steadily...while BTC does the inverse.
Source: JPM
Strong dollar connection
The latest surge in gold continues moving in perfect tandem with the DXY (inverted) motion.
Source: Refinitiv
Gold's upside panic in a pic
Gold volatility has exploded to the upside. Note the massive move higher in the GVZ during yesterday's session. Recall that gold trades with an upside skew, so surging gold = gold volatility squeezing.
Source: Refinitiv
The tariff trade
Simple as that....for how long?
Source: Paulo Macro |
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