Roger's 1998 Short Picks Message Board

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Strategies & Market Trends : Roger's 1998 Short Picks

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To: Pancho Villa who wrote (3477)	2/23/1998 8:52:00 PM
From: Oeconomicus	Read Replies (1) of 18691

Short Interest going up like hell!!!! Pancho, NYSE short interest went up by 151mm shares yes, but Compaq alone accounted for 43mm of that and about half of that number is due to the split for which the prior month is not adjusted (the rest is likely arbitrage related). The point is that the short interest, measured in shares, is misleading with all the splits and mergers going on. The more important statistic, the NYSE short interest ratio, fell from 6.44 in Jan to 5.80 in Feb, but even that is hard to interpret as volume in the Dec/Jan period included six days of low holiday volume pushing the ratio up. Looking back farther, Jan short interest fell by 89mm shares from Dec and the SI ratio for Dec was 6.66 (evil shorts?) so the trend in the ratio at least looks downward. I don't think we can get much helpful information from this marketwide statistic anymore. OTOH, we know that down or up, any change is likely to be interpreted as a bullish sign these days. What can you do? It's a manic market. Bob

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