At 3300 we’re talking about a serious Bear market, with a decline not so far from 50%.
I’m mostly in cash, except for Gold, some bonds - and a few selected names, with small positions. Ready to dump them all if needed. Have been waiting for solid evidence of recovery - major indices trading above 200dma, or above 8&12 month ma’s. VIX down. So far, obviously, no luck with that.
I think it could become really troubling if things turn for the worse with China. Like, if they decide to cut us off from their end. No exports - and of story. This would make me worried about more than just the markets.
But - things may change for the better - deals may be made, acceptable compromises reached, maybe rates cut, as per usual…. The Administration cannot afford to stay on a course for long if it leads to problems for the population.. If Dems win both houses next year - it’s very probable that there would be big changes in the WH. So, we shall see. |
