Q) Have we ever seen v-wave go all the way down to proactive region?
A)
Re: v-Wave in Proactive Range..................
Yes, many times over the years since 1982. It takes a concerted effort on the part of the BEARS to take the market down far enough to be in the Proactive range, however. Here's the list of major Proactive events in chronological order:
v-Wave "Proactive" History
Jan, 1982 thru Feb, 1983
Feb, 1984 thru Feb, 1985
Nov, 1987 thru Feb, 1988 (Black Monday and the "Crash of '87)
Aug, 1990 thru Feb, 1991 (1st Gulf War)
Sep, 2001 thru Apr, 2003 (9/11/2001 Attack with Intermittent but sustained near Proactive)
Oct, 2008 thru Jun, 2009 ("Financial Crisis")
Sep, 2011 thru Oct, 2011 (Brief but good call)
Mar, 2020 thru Apr, 2020 (Covid 19 "Crisis")
MRI "Proactive History
Aug, 1982 thru Sep, 1982
Nov, 1987 thru Apr, 1988 (Black Monday and "Crash of '87)
Dec, 1988 thru Jan, 1989 (intermittent signals)
Sep, 1990 thru Feb, 1991 (1st Gulf War)
Oct, 1998 thru Nov, 1998
Oct, 2001 thru Nov, 1991 (9/11/2001 Attack plus Market Stresses)
Jul, 2002 thru Jun, 2003
Oct, 2008 thru May, 2009 (Financial Crisis)
Dec, 2009 thru Mar, 2010
Jul, 2010 thru Nov, 2010
Aug, 2011 thru Mar, 2012
Jun, 2012 thru Oct, 2012
Aug, 2015 thru Apr, 2016 (Intermittent but sustained at or near Proactive)
Dec, 2018 thru Mar, 2019
Mar, 2020 thru Jun, 2020 (Covid 19 "Crisis")
In the above tables, I've underlined the events that occur in both the MRI and the v-Wave. There were more MRI "Proactive" events and more total time in that range than the v-Wave, but both gave quite solid "Buy" signals. In both cases, we've not seen a Proactive time frame in the last 5 years, since the Covid event. Since Covid, the MRI has sustained the most "Caution" periods in its 40+ year history. The Post Covid period has put the MRI on alert of unsustainable gains for a record number of total weeks - 145 weeks in Caution out of 247.
So, the markets seem to be over-do for a correction or ??? to bring these market risk indicators back down to their Proactive ranges.
Best wishes,
OAG Tom
Buy from the Scared; Sell to the Greedy..... |
