Tenchu's Thoughts: Tariff Copium and Why That's Good For Mr. Market
Trump's tariff threats are so far turning into a big nothingburger in the long term. He has already delayed his lIbErAtIoN dAy tariffs for 90 days, and he has recently signaled a capitulation on his dumbass trade war with China.
The uncertainty, of course, is killing the markets, but the Dow is still showing remarkable strength at a new trading range centered below 40K. This is all based on two things:
1) That Trump will back off on his tariff plans, which he is doing, it seems, and ...
2) That Trump will have somehow learned his lesson and won't bring back tariffs.
Of course, #2 isn't a sure thing, and the stubborn-ass Trump will likely try again in the near-to-mid-term future.
pRoMiSeS mAdE, pRoMiSeS kEpT
Of course, Trump doesn't work for anything but his own ego. And as we all know (except the MAGA cultists, of course), Trump lives in a bubble of alternate reality, one that is shaped by his yes-men and his MAGA cucks both here and abroad.
That means both the "alternative facts" that went into the shaping of his tariff plans in the first place AND the "alternative facts" that will determine whether his tariff plans end up being successful will be complete made-up shit.
Already Trump is declaring "success" on his tariff "strategery." He is falsely declaring that markets are up, grocery prices including eggs are down, and countries are opening up their markets to U.S. exports. They're complete lies, of course, but by now we should know that MAGA is immune to the facts.
Tenchu's seventh and final rule of partisan politics: Declare victory and move on
I predict that Trump will back off on his grand plans for tariffs.
I predict that Trump will declare victory and point to "accomplishments" like nVidia, Apple, and TSMC bringing manufacturing back onshore. (This isn't due to Trump's tariffs, BTW. I already covered this before: Message 35097381 )
I predict that the markets will recover as the threat of Trump's tariffs subsides, which of course Trump will take credit for.
And ultimately, I predict that there won't be a huge wave of manufacturing returning onshore. Of course the MAGA cucks will claim otherwise as they point to the aforementioned "accomplishments," but even that will only amount to a few percentage points of the overall $27T U.S. GDP.
But MAGA will take credit and attribute Trump's policies for markets resuming their upward growth.
The truth will be that markets will only grow as long as Trump DOESN'T meddle in them.
In other words, the more Trump is removed from the equation, the better off the global economy will be.
Personally I'm all for that. Keep Trump in his bubble of narcissism, and tell him HE'S the reason why global markets are recovering.
Don't tell him the truth, that markets are recovering because he is backing away from the tariffs and is unlikely to resume his brash trade war of choice.
This is what I call "Tariff Copium." Let MAGA believe that tariffs "worked." They live in their own bubble of reality anyway, where they are the main characters. Let them believe that they're "winning."
Tenchusatsu |
