J.P. Morgan said it expects gold prices to cross the $4,000/oz milestone next year, citing an increasing likelihood of a recession due to U.S. tariffs and an ongoing U.S.-China trade war.
The bank now expects gold prices to reach an average of $3,675/oz by Q4 2025 on the way to push past $4,000 by Q2 2026, with risks skewed towards an earlier overshoot if demand continues to surpass expectations.
"Underpinning our forecast for gold prices heading towards $4,000/oz next year is continued strong investor and central bank gold demand averaging around 710 tonnes a quarter on net this year," the bank wrote.
Central bank demand was one of the greatest drivers behind gold's rally in 2024, and a combination of economic, trade and U.S. policy uncertainty, plus geopolitical unpredictability should keep demand strong,
JPM analysts said, adding that it estimates central banks will purchase ~900 metric tons of bullion in 2025.
Central banks bought 1,045 tons of bullion in 2024, accounting for ~20% of overall demand, according to the World Gold Council.
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