Hi all!
Per Elliot's email, I felt the conference call was very good, and I did not hear any negatives. They even beat the questioners to the punch about the slow sales growth in Europe, and what they are doing about it. In fact, there were some VERY strong positives. They really seem to have a lot of expectations for the Anacomp arrangement. Given their usual cautious manner, they almost seemed like they were dying to say something more about it. They said a chunk of Anacomp sales people had just been in Tel Aviv for training, so they are getting the ball rolling.
Now, for the issue of the $33 stock price. Didn't Oppenheimer say "low 30's" when the came out with their recommendation last fall? I know that Oppenheimer is redoing the report, apparently for some "typos", or so I am told. My gut tells me they may raise the bar a little, since there is no way Oppenheimer (Nicole Schmidt, et el) could have know about the Oracle or Anacomp alliances when they did their report. Those were not public when they did the report last fall, and the analysts are not privy to any more inside data than the rest of us, at least not of that nature. I asked New D point blank if Oppenheimer new about the Anacomp or Oracle alliances that were coming down the pike, and the company said they were not any more privy than a shareholder to information of that nature.
Do you want some more interesting news? The Gartner Group report that was supposed to come out about the output management product is being redone (Did I tell you about this in an earlier post?). The Gartner analyst that did the section on us in the original report took a job with Anacomp, so I don't think the original report ever got completely done. Next thing you know, Anacomp is dumping a previous partner and hooking up with New D. Coincidence? I doubt it. In the original report, the Gartner Group supposedly rated New D's output management product the clear winner, and were on some road show where they would say as much. (I am trying to recall details of earlier conversations I had with New D, so correct me if I am getting any of this wrong.) The hope/thought is that whoever is doing the new report at Gartner will also love New D's stuff.
As for the Y2K product, Control-I/2000, I personally do not hang a lot of hope on it. It is not a high priced product, and did not cost much to develop ($800K, I think). It is a modification to a product that New D had in the market anyway, so the jump to being in the Y2K market was pretty easy. However, aren't a lot of Y2K companies taking it on the chin this earnings season? Seems to me that the problem may be overblown. Anyway, don't we rely on companies like Compunel and Sapiens to put Control-I/2000 into their overall Y2K solutions? If so, are success in the Y2K area rests on the success of those companies, doesn't it? I'm happy not to get New D too hyped in the Y2K arena, as there is a good chance I am going to be a very long term holder of at least a chunk of my position, and I don't want to see the air let out of the tire in 2000-2001 when the Y2K stuff is history. I started to build my position in December 1994, and have no intention of exiting in the foreseeable future. I'd rather they worked on their long term, core business, and leave the Y2K stuff for the other guys.
Just some thoughts. Later.
Mike |
