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Strategies & Market Trends : 2026 TeoTwawKi ... 2032 Darkest Interregnum
GLD 375.93-1.8%4:00 PM EST

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To: Haim R. Branisteanu who wrote (213901)4/27/2025 4:18:22 AM
From: TobagoJack  Read Replies (1) of 217755
 
re <<Gold>> ...

- do not have and never had gold futures
- only have physical / paper gold, gold mining ETFs GDX and GDXJ, and miners FNV and DRD
- should I sell gold, presupposes I know that the trade war is over, victor declared, and dollar secure
- I neither know nor suspect such presupposition

- I do know ...
(1) between 1982 and today, buying 1 troy oz of gold would have resulted in superior gain relative to one unit of DJIA and S&P500 and one barrel of crude for the years 1996 through 2007, and for the years 2014 through today
(2) overall, a regular annual buy of gold for the years 1982 through today would result in 6.50X gain for gold, 8.59X for DJIA, 9.56X for S&P500, and 2.11X for crude
(3) the associated annualised percentage gain averages to 4.56% Gold, 5.26% DJIA, and 5.52% S&P500
(4) as and when and if Gold rises 25% from current level to $4,000, and DJIA declines 20% to 32,090, and S&P500 declines 20% to 4,420, then ...
(4-a) a regular annual buy of gold for the years 1982 through when-that-day comes would result in 7.83X gain for gold, 6.88X for DJIA, and 7.65X for S&P500
(4-b) the associated annualised percentage gain averages to 5.02% Gold, 4.70% DJIA, and 4.96% S&P500
(5) am guessing that there is a good possibility within 2025 that Gold rises 25%, and DJIA and S&P500 declines 20%, all from current levels
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