Mark Carney’s Liberals Win Canada’s Election. Here Are 4 Takeaways.
The former central banker successfully convinced voters that he was the right candidate to confront President Trump’s trade war and threats to annex the country.
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Canada Elects Mark Carney as Prime MinisterMark Carney of the Liberal Party spoke to supporters on Tuesday after being declared the winner of Canada’s election.
“Who’s ready to stand up for Canada with me? America wants our land, our resources, our water, our country. Never. President Trump is trying to break us so that America can own us. That will never — that will never, ever happen.” “I would like to congratulate Prime Minister Carney on leading this minority government. No, no — we’ll have plenty of opportunity to debate.” [music: “Your Man” by Down With Webster]
Canada Elects Mark Carney as Prime Minister
Mark Carney of the Liberal Party spoke to supporters on Tuesday after being declared the winner of Canada’s election.CreditCredit...Cole Burston for The New York Times
 
By Matina Stevis-Gridneff and Ian Austen
Reporting from Ottawa
April 29, 2025 Updated 8:38 a.m. ET
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Prime Minister Mark Carney led his Liberal Party to a narrow victory in Canada’s pivotal election on Monday, securing a fourth term in power for the party and a renewed mandate to lead the fight against President Trump over trade and the nation’s sovereignty.
Mr. Carney, a former central banker who was running for office for the first time, struck a combative tone toward the United States during his acceptance speech in the early hours of Tuesday at a Liberal Party event in Ottawa.
It was unclear whether the Liberals would win a majority of seats in the next House of Commons, which would allow Mr. Carney to govern relatively unimpeded, or if his government would need to rely on smaller parties to support his legislative agenda.
Carney promises to face up to Trump.Mr. Carney has not met Mr. Trump in person since becoming Liberal Party leader and prime minister last month. But he made Mr. Trump’s menacing comments about making Canada the 51st state and the tariffs he has imposed on Canadian goods the center of his campaign.
The two men held what was described as a professional call before the election, though Mr. Carney said during the campaign that Mr. Trump had brought up the 51st state threat during that conversation.
Mr. Carney has said that he will maintain Canada’s retaliatory tariffs against the United States. But he has cautioned that expanding them would harm Canadians more than they would pressure Americans.
Outside a polling station in Toronto. President Trump’s threats against Canada proved to be a dominant election issue.Credit...Ian Willms for The New York Times
Mr. Carney has also pledged to diversify Canada’s alliances and trading relationships, and he made a brief but important trip to Europe to underscore that approach last month.
In his acceptance speech, Mr. Carney stressed that his priority would be to continue to push back against Mr. Trump.
“As I’ve been warning for months, America wants our land, our resources, our water, our country,” he said. “President Trump is trying to break us so he can own us. That will never happen.” He also warned Canadians that confronting the American threat would be difficult and might require sacrifices.
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The result was close.
Mr. Carney’s victory was an extraordinary political comeback for the Liberals. Just a few months ago, they trailed the opposition Conservative Party under Pierre Poilievre by nearly 30 percentage points according to opinion polls, and it was widely expected that the Liberals faced a near-death experience.
But that was before Mr. Trump began talking about annexing Canada and imposing potentially crippling tariffs on the country.
It was also before Justin Trudeau, who many voters had soured on after nearly a decade in office, stepped down as prime minister.
Early in the campaign, polls started to suggest that the Conservatives’ sizable lead had evaporated and that the Liberals under Mr. Carney might be headed for a decisive win.
But during the final week or so of the campaign, the gap between the two parties narrowed as voters’ concerns shifted away from Mr. Trump’s designs on Canada and back to concerns about the cost of living.
While the Conservatives were denied power, the party appeared headed for its biggest share of the popular vote since 1988, and it will most likely win more seats than it did in the previous Parliament.
The Conservatives made gains, but their leader lost his seat.Mr. Poilievre lost his seat in Ottawa, a stinging defeat for a man who seemed set to become the next prime minister just a few weeks ago. He is a career politician and has held the seat for the past two decades, since he was 25.
Before news of his loss had been confirmed, Mr. Poilievre conceded the general election but vowed to stay on as leader.
He framed the Conservative result as the start of a major shift in Canadian politics, highlighting the important gains the party had made under his leadership.
“Change is needed, but is hard to come by. It takes time, it takes work,” Mr. Poilievre told his supporters in Ottawa.
Pierre Poilievre, leader of the opposition Conservatives, lost his seat in Ottawa, a stinging defeat for a man who seemed set to become the next prime minister just a few weeks ago. Credit...Nasuna Stuart-Ulin for The New York Times
But it is not clear whether his party will stick with him. Despite crediting Mr. Poilievre with lifting the Conservatives, there are segments of the party that hold him accountable for failing to successfully pivot after the threat posed by Mr. Trump. Losing his seat weakens his authority, and the Conservative caucus ousted the party’s two previous leaders after election losses, but analysts expressed belief that he still had a strong grip on the party.
Carney will have to make big decisions quickly.After his call with Mr. Trump last month, Mr. Carney said that the U.S. president had agreed to swiftly enter broad talks on security and economic issues with whoever won Monday’s election, so a meeting between the two leaders is expected soon.
Mr. Carney will also have to quickly make a number of domestic political decisions, starting with forming a cabinet and beginning a parliamentary session.
Other experiences awaiting him include being grilled in Parliament for the first time.
And Mr. Carney will soon host the leaders of the Group of 7 industrialized nations. Mr. Trump and the leaders of Britain, France, Germany, Italy and Japan, as well as the European Union, are expected to attend the summit to be held in Kananaskis, a mountain resort in Alberta, in mid-June.
Matina Stevis-Gridneff is the Canada bureau chief for The Times, leading coverage of the country.
Ian Austen reports on Canada for The Times based in Ottawa. He covers politics, culture and the people of Canada and has reported on the country for two decades. He can be reached at austen@nytimes.com.
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