| | | Thanks for the prompt Galt. Busy with work and a 2yo at home makes personal life scarce, and waxing poetic on this board unfortunately takes a backseat.
That said nothing has changed about my investment thesis on IBRX, if anything even more bullish on all the recent news plus what seems to be close alignment with the new administration.
Dunkirk site insulates lots of potential threat of tarriffs, which derisks this investment near-term IMO.
The JnJ data is interesting but in my experience oncologists are 1) conservative when it comes to long-term data vs new wonder drugs, and 2) highly money motivated.
So while the CR rate for the JnJ drug looks good, it would need to beat Anktiva's long-term data to get positioned ahead. That at least is my experience, realizing there is a patient on the other side who is involved in the decision-making, if the doc is any good at least. The story to the patient would be this option has long-term data and solid likelihood of saving your bladder, whereas this one seems to have good early success but unknown how long it will last. Which do you prefer, roll the dice with unknown or go with known? It's not a tough decision for either physician or patient.
Then the money part is a huge deal too, and docs who go into dicks are not in it for the passion and love of the game, they want patients to stay alive long time and come back frequently for infusions, which is made possible with Anktiva. If I remember the JnJ MoA correctly, someone keep me honest, it is inserted and then removed later on, so does not have the same revenue stream that Anktiva offers, which FOR SURE plays a role in their decision to adopt or not.
Beyond that what we need to see is data beyond bladder. The papillary submission is great and we should get a PDUFA date in the next few weeks, but what I'm looking for is another game-changing data set paired with CPI, whether NSCLC or anything else. That is what is holding this bugger back IMO, that and the fundraising overhang obviously.
But aside from that the narrative of empowering the immune system as opposed to killing it with chemo is super compelling, and if Anktiva proves itself in all these other potential indications beyond cancer then this thing goes to the moon. I think I said previously, and someone responded scientifically, that there are NK drugs now being explored in Alzheimer's disease.
Anktiva is clearly a platform in a molecule, and that is what big pharma wants. Add new regulatory approvals and indications and this thing has the potential to hit that $30 price target for sure.
Anyways I've got diamond hands on this one and starting to pick at some options. On sales, someone mentioned underwhelming, my experience is payers take 60-90 days to pay, so Q1 was never going to be a big number based simply on when payers pay, and I'm sure the clinics are negotiating 90-120 day payment terms to allow for this nuanced reimbursement delay. So I'm looking at Q2 and Q3 numbers to begin to show the true ramp, which means August and November options and obviously into next year.
C'mon PSS, git er done! |
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