Tenchu's Thoughts: Trump's First Foreign Policy Failure - Ukraine
The news today should surprise absolutely no one ...
US pulls out of formal peace talks between Ukraine and Russia (The Standard via Yahoo News)
What. A. Surprise.
Trump promised to end the war in 24 hours with one phone call even before he became president.
Instead, he tried to suck PooTin's little Rasputin while at the same time bully Zelensky into surrender.
He thought that Zelensky was in a much more dire situation than he actually was.
And he thought that PooTin was much more open to peace than he actually was.
All of this was due to Trump being completely bamboozled by RuZZian disinformation. You know, the same disinformation that the PooTin cucks on this thread fall for every single day.
What I Predicted Back in November
This is what I wrote back in November when Trump's "concept of a peace plan" was unveiled:
Tenchu's Thoughts: Trump's Concept of a Plan When It Comes to Ukraine
Among other things, I mentioned a best-case scenario and a worst-case scenario:
Best case scenario? A ceasefire deal is reached, and Trump will have pulled yet another rabbit out of his hat. Whether or not RuZZia honors it in the future doesn't really matter, because Trump will have succeeded in buying time for both sides. And I still believe time is NOT on RuZZia's side, even though Ukraine has arguably been taking the worst of it. Worst case scenario? War continues, Trump unilaterally withdraws, RuZZia makes substantial gains, and Europe then is forced to start deploying troops and aviation into the region. Then Trump, in his usual fashion, will blame everyone else for failing to bring the war to an end as he promised. It seems reality landed somewhere in between, as I predicted.
Trump did indeed unilaterally withdrew from the peace process, which was always a farce to begin with given how absolutely st00pid this administration is. Trump is also blaming everyone else for his own failures like the coward he is.
However, it seems U.S. military aid will continue. Moreover, it seems RuZZia isn't making very substantial gains at all. Sure, they retook Kursk, but is that really a big victory? After all, it was (and still is) their own territory.
Hence Europe doesn't have to actually deploy troops and aviation in Ukraine. But as I mentioned before, Europe is already stepping up their efforts to support Ukraine, and every step up is a significant advantage that Ukraine gains upon the faltering RuZZian advance.
Hey Couch-Fukker, STFU!
Lastly, I want to point out how much of a dumbass JD the Couch-Fukker is ...
JD Vance says Russia and Ukraine must 'strike a deal or US will walk away' (Times of India)
"Now, of course, that means the Ukrainians and the Russians are both going to have to give up some of the territory they currently own," he added. What in the actual sweet tits is the couch-fukker talking about?
RuZZia isn't going to give anything away to Ukraine that they currently own, because RUZZIA IS THE AGGRESSOR, YOU FUKKIN' IDIOT! All of the territory that they currently occupy is Ukraine's, and the only RuZZian territory that Ukraine occupies right now are little itty-bitty parts of the Belgorod region right across the border.
Predictions
It's hard to say what will happen in the next six months, of course, because it all depends on whether the U.S. will continue military aid. Zelensky has to assume that the aid will end, but there is no amount of preparation that will negate the blow to Ukraine's defensive capabilities.
Similarly, it's hard to know when RuZZia will finally run out of money to keep their so-called "war economy" going. Already inflation in RuZZia is now above 10%, and that's just what they claim nominally. Actual inflation might be worse. But the RuZZian people won't give a Brandon as long as their wages continue to grow faster than inflation. Once that trend flips, and wages are no longer able to keep up with inflation, only then will they start to complain. That might happen this year, but even if it does, there still a long way to go before PooTin's regime finally collapses.
One thing is for sure. RuZZia has to keep the momentum going, even if it means feeding more bodies into the meat grinder. They're running out of armored vehicles, they're relying on North Korea for 50% of their artillery shells, and their oil revenue is taking huge hits. Their FAB glide bombs aren't as effective as before (though they're still frighteningly effective). But most importantly, RuZZia remains permanently behind Ukraine in the whole drone and counter-drone technology race, and this technological deficit will only widen.
Hence I believe we'll see six more months of the samo samo, only with RuZZian losses accelerating and Ukraine's rate of losses staying relatively constant. RuZZia will still keep making positive gains, but those gains will only be measured by a few square kilometers per day. They can't afford (politically) to lose even that little momentum, so they'll just keep going and going as they keep falling victim to the sunken cost fallacy.
Meanwhile, PooTin's dreams of outlasting Ukraine will likely not become a reality, so the only question is when PooTin will figure that out. I know JD the Couch Fukker will never figure that out, unfortunately.
Tenchusatsu |
