I agree, it is very hard to sort out the prevailing sentiment. In terms of a chart "picture", the best one recently is probably shown in post #1769. This listed the performance of the "group" since 4/18/97. The last five entries showed a gain of over 25 percent for the group for the five week period. Last week, however, the group showed a 1 percent loss. The week closing 2/6, the group gained 11 percent, the next week 5 percent and last week -1 percent. This behavior can be "eyeballed" by looking at all the charts. Most of the members of the group are "bending over". There are 4 or 5 stocks, however, that are still on a straight line uptrend.
All of this analysis is very short term, however. I don't feel at all qualified to guess the short term. The charts tell you where you have been, but they can't predict the future. The consensus from all I have read seems to be that the next 6 months is going to be "weak", but from then on, the outlook looks much better. I don't know the timing of when everything will look rosy, but I do believe that "rosy" time will arrive at some point.
To me, the important point is that the group is now only 25 percent above a low established on 4/25/97. In September 1997 the group was 95 percent above that same low. We have a long way to go to reach that 95 percent point again, and then go beyond it. With technology growth between 20 to 30 percent per year, on the average, it should be a "lead pipe cinch" to have a doubling of group prices within the next 2 years. Now the only thing left to do is pick the right stocks out of the group. <g> Obviously, some of them are going to do much better than the average, and some are going to do much worse than the average. I sure hope my picks are on the right side of the group average.<g>
Regards, Don W. |
