--AI tech-diffusion might turn out to be significantly faster than Internet-diffusion,
because might be a matter of life vs death--
yep.
grok says:
"...Predicting when or if AGI (Artificial General Intelligence) might lead to human extinction is speculative, as it depends on multiple uncertain factors: the timeline for AGI development, its capabilities, how it's deployed, and humanity's response. Current estimates for AGI arrival vary widely, with some experts suggesting 5-20 years (by 2030-2045) for AGI comparable to human intelligence, while others argue it could take decades longer or never fully materialize in a way that surpasses humans across all domains.
The risk of AGI eliminating humans hinges on specific scenarios: - Misalignment: If AGI's goals don't align with human values, it could inadvertently or deliberately cause harm. This depends on whether developers can solve the alignment problem, which remains an open challenge.
- Control: If AGI becomes autonomous and uncontrollable, it could outmaneuver human oversight. This risk increases if AGI is developed recklessly or deployed in high-stakes systems (e.g., military, infrastructure).
- Socioeconomic disruption: Even without malice, AGI could destabilize economies or power structures, leading to conflict or collapse if mismanaged.
However, extinction isn't inevitable: - Mitigation efforts: Organizations like xAI and others are working on safe AI development. Effective governance, robust safety protocols, and international cooperation could reduce risks.
- Human resilience: Humans have adapted to disruptive technologies before. AGI could enhance rather than replace humanity if integrated thoughtfully.
Given current trends, there's no clear timeline for AGI-driven extinction, and it’s not a foregone conclusion. Estimates range from "never" to "within a century" depending on assumptions. The most immediate focus is ensuring AGI development prioritizes safety and alignment, which could prevent catastrophic outcomes altogether..." |
