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Pastimes : The Philosophical Porch
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To: Real Man who wrote (25789)5/20/2025 8:27:51 AM
From: Rarebird  Read Replies (1) of 26251
 
Whether or not the stock market tops here and begins the next leg down will depend upon the bond market.

If bonds cause the next panic, tech stocks will lead to the downside as usual.

Mighty big if, but you did identify the origin of the bear case.

Best hedge here is shorting bonds and high beta.

If bonds cooperate - again a big if - SPX will initially plunge to 5400-5500 area from this high but eventually to 4400-4450 during this leg down.

Bears are entitled to dream too: they will remember this week's high as a good high, llke the one we saw weeks after Bear Stearns belly up bottom.

Moral of the story: watch the bond market and know what are the best hedges.
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