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Pastimes : The Philosophical Porch

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To: Rarebird who wrote (25847)	5/21/2025 11:19:30 PM
From: Real Man	of 26251

I think 10 year yield will crater as US slides into recession and follows EU with interest rate cuts. High yields cure high yields. My desired portfolio is a 50/50 TLT/EFA long. The Fed will buy a ton if US goes into recession, balance of trade will reverse too. Inflation is doing its last kick because US consumer still has good jobs. Take that away and yields will crater. JMHO of course, and I am probably looking in a rear view mirror expecting bond market to rally (rates to be taken back down to zero) on economic weakness.

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