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Technology Stocks : Trading TAVA

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To: eleebee who wrote (156)	2/24/1998 9:34:00 AM
From: Skeptic	Read Replies (3) of 655

I'm not trying to convert anyone to my point of view. I just want others to realize that there are alternatives to the prevailing wisdom on this thread that can be rationally defended. My point about Warren Buffet is that he has a very long horizon and has been very successful with it. I was contrasting this with your statement that "to try to second guess what will happen two years from now is a futile exercise". Just the opposite, I believe that the market is very efficient in evaluating short-term prospects and that the real opportunities lie in correctly assessing long-run outcomes. I am not pessimistic in every situation. I just think its foolish for anyone with the same information as everyone else to believe that the market is mispricing a stock by a factor of two or three. I own a small amount of Tava because it is clear that investors are overrating the value of Y2K. I suspect that this will continue to be the case. More Y2K news and contracts are very likely to push the stock to even more unrealistic levels. The difference is that I openly admit that the greater fool theory is at work and fully understand the risks involved.

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