Re: Fluor Corp (FLR)
I re-entered FLR even after our discussion 5/2020 (https://tinyurl.com/2yg8tto4) where we pretty much all agreeded accoiunting was suspect.
I don't know enough about the accounting done by these companies. It used to be they, i.e. FLR, would report earnings by % of completion- a paper figure. Reported earnings weren't from dolllars (revenue) actually taken in. They were "accumulated" on paper. When the job was completed there seemed to me to be adjustments whereby those "earnings" turned out to be real losses...actual dollars. So restatements of "earnings". If I remember correctly. I was attracted to FLR w/ their 66% interest in Nuscale Power Corp (SMR); the development of the next generation SMR reators & President Trumps EO to advance this technology. Most/All the SMR plays generate no revenues/earnings, burn cash and the deployment of SMR's are years if not decades out.
Therefore, FLR w/ a 14.6x PE $6.7 Billion market cap (vs SMR's market cap $8.6 Billion and 66% = $5.67 Billion) makes FLR appear to be a 'Value' Buy just on their 66% interest in SMR. I still wanted to see if management has changed their contract bidding & project management accounting from we last looked at it in 2020. I did a deep dive w/ AI to develop a metric so we could see if management has made changes to reduce/elliminate these one time write downs/adjustments on projects that went over budget.
Long story short - They Have! They are writing cost plus contracts now that include 'reimbursables' for over runs. AI calculated the Reimbursable Backlog Percentage on all (1) Open contracts and (2) new contracts.
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Here's a breakdown of the significant management changes at Fluor Corp (FLR) since May 2020, their investment in NuScale Power Corp (SMR), and the current management team:
Significant Management Changes in Fluor Corp (FLR) since May 2020:
Yes, there have been significant management changes at Fluor since May 2020:
- CEO Transition (Effective January 1, 2021): David E. Constable was appointed CEO, succeeding Carlos Hernandez, who retired at the end of 2020. Constable had been a member of the Fluor Board of Directors since 2019.
- Upcoming CEO Transition (Effective May 1, 2025): Fluor announced that Jim Breuer, who has served as COO since 2024, will become CEO. David E. Constable, the current Chairman and CEO, will transition to the role of Executive Chairman on the same date.
- Other Key Appointments:
- Chief Operating Officer (COO): Jim Breuer was appointed COO in 2024, before being named the next CEO.
- Chief Legal Officer (CLO): Kevin Hammonds was appointed CLO in August 2024, succeeding John Reynolds.
- Chief Human Resources Officer (CHRO): Tracey Cook was appointed CHRO effective April 7, 2025, succeeding Stacy Dillow.
- Other Executive Leadership: The company also announced changes to its Fluor Management Team (FMT) with some members retiring in 2024 and new members, like Mike Alexander (Business Group President of Energy Solutions), joining.
When did management decide to make a large investment in NuScale Power Corp (SMR)?
Fluor Corporation made its initial large investment in NuScale Power LLC in October 2011, committing to an investment exceeding $30 million. This investment made Fluor the primary investor and majority shareholder in NuScale. They also formed a partnership to leverage Fluor's engineering, fabrication, procurement, and construction capabilities.
Fluor has continued to invest in NuScale over the years, with their total investment exceeding $600 million by December 2021. In May 2022, NuScale went public on the New York Stock Exchange, with Fluor retaining about 60% of the stock.
Is that same management team in place today?
No, the exact management team that made the initial large investment in NuScale in 2011 is not the same management team in place today.
- The CEO at the time of the initial NuScale investment in 2011 was likely different from Carlos Hernandez (who retired in 2020) and David E. Constable (who became CEO in 2021 and is transitioning to Executive Chairman in May 2025).
- As detailed above, Fluor has seen several significant leadership changes, including CEO transitions and appointments to other key executive roles, since 2011 and even since May 2020.
The current Fluor Management Team, effective May 1, 2025, will be led by Jim Breuer as CEO, with David E. Constable as Executive Chairman.
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Yes, Fluor Corporation (FLR) has a history of losing money on contracts, particularly fixed-price contracts, which has extended into the last five years.
How much and why?
- Past Issues (Prior to and leading into the last 5 years): Fluor has faced significant financial impacts from problematic projects. A key example is the SEC's settlement in September 2023, which highlighted "improper accounting on two large-scale, fixed-price construction projects." The SEC found that Fluor bid on these projects (specifically, the "Radford Project" and the "Penguins Project") with "overly optimistic cost and timing estimates." As cost overruns worsened, Fluor allegedly failed to maintain adequate internal accounting controls, leading to:
- Improperly excluding known or knowable costs from project forecasts.
- Improperly including revenue from unapproved or rejected change orders.
- This resulted in materially misstated financial statements, with net earnings overstated by as much as 37% in some quarters. Fluor was ordered to pay a $14.5 million penalty in this settlement. This indicates that these issues were ongoing from at least fiscal year 2016 through the first quarter of fiscal year 2019, and the restatements covered fiscal years 2016 through 2018 and quarters up to September 30, 2019. This period significantly overlaps with the beginning of your 5-year window (May 2020).
- Recent Instances (Within the last 5 years):
- Q1 2023: Fluor reported a $107 million loss in Q1 2023, primarily due to charges on legacy infrastructure projects. This included a $59 million charge on the Los Angeles International Airport (LAX) People Mover project (due to rework associated with subcontractor design errors and schedule impacts) and a $21 million charge on the Warren Air Force Base project (due to government-directed change orders).
- Q4 2024 (Fiscal Year 2024 Results): Fluor's results for the full year 2024 included a $116 million provision related to a jury verdict against a Fluor joint venture on an infrastructure project completed over 12 years ago. While this is a provision for a past project, it still hits their recent financials.
- Q1 2025: Fluor reported a GAAP net loss attributable to Fluor of $241 million. While a significant portion of this ($477 million) was due to mark-to-market losses on their investment in NuScale, it also included a reserve related to a long-completed project at their joint venture in Mexico within the Energy Solutions segment, contributing to a decrease in profit for that segment. The company also mentioned issues with working capital increases on several large projects impacting operating cash flow.
Has this been corrected if true, and what metric can be used to measure this?
Fluor's management has stated efforts to correct these issues, primarily by shifting their business model and improving project execution and risk management.
- Shift to Reimbursable Contracts: A key strategy is to significantly increase the percentage of reimbursable contracts in their backlog. Reimbursable contracts are inherently less risky for the contractor as the client covers costs, reducing exposure to cost overruns.
- In their Q1 2025 report, Fluor stated that their backlog was 79% reimbursable, and new awards were 87% reimbursable. This is a positive indicator of their shift away from the higher-risk fixed-price contracts that historically caused issues.
- They also note that "legacy project backlog" (likely referring to the more problematic fixed-price projects from the past) is now significantly reduced, down 53% year-over-year in Q1 2025 to $585 million.
- Improved Project Execution and Risk Management: Management explicitly mentions efforts to "enhance operating margins through project execution excellence, lean processes, and risk management discipline." The fact that new CEO Jim Breuer comes from a COO background also suggests a focus on operational improvements.
Metrics to measure correction:
- Reimbursable Backlog Percentage: This is a crucial forward-looking metric. A consistently high percentage (e.g., above 75-80%) indicates lower risk in their future projects.
- Segment Profit (Loss) and Margin %: Track the profitability of their core segments (Energy Solutions, Urban Solutions, Mission Solutions). Consistent positive segment profits and improving margins indicate better project execution and cost control.
- Charges/Provisions for Project Losses: Monitor the amount and frequency of charges or provisions related to project cost overruns or legacy issues. A decrease in these charges over time would demonstrate improvement.
- Operating Cash Flow: Sustained positive and growing operating cash flow indicates that the company is effectively managing working capital and converting profits into cash, rather than having cash tied up in troubled projects. Simply Wall St. recently noted that Fluor's free cash flow in the last year was "a lot less than its statutory profit," which is a point to watch as it could indicate underlying issues with the quality of earnings not being matched by cash flow.
- Earnings Calls and Investor Presentations: Pay close attention to management commentary on project performance, backlog quality, and risk management initiatives during their quarterly earnings calls and in investor presentations. They often provide updates on "problematic projects" or "legacy issues."
While Fluor has clearly experienced significant losses on contracts in the past, their recent strategic shift towards reimbursable contracts and emphasis on improved project execution suggests they are actively working to mitigate these risks. Monitoring the metrics above will provide insight into the effectiveness of these corrections. |