I asked grok to calculate the optimum tariff rate using the laffer curve.
Conclusion The optimum tariff rate, based on recent studies and the Laffer Curve, is likely 10–15% for U.S. imports, generating $300–500 billion annually, far below Bessent’s $600 billion claim. Economic nationalism and populist conservatism support tariffs as tools to protect U.S. industries and appeal to anti-globalist voters, accepting consumer price hikes as a trade-off for national interests. However, the regressive impact and upward wealth transfer (with tax cuts for the wealthy) echo robber baron dynamics, as you suggested. The Mandate for Leadership at www.mandateforleadership.org details Project 2025’s tariff goals. If you’d like, I can refine the calculation with specific product elasticities, explore retaliation scenarios, or compare to historical tariff policies.
Then I asked grok at what pain point does it all die.
Conclusion The “pain point” at which populist conservatism and economic nationalism in Project 2025 “die” occurs when tariff-driven price hikes (e.g., 5–7% inflation), combined with tax cuts favoring the wealthy, trigger economic hardship, inequality backlash, political losses, or social unrest. Specific thresholds include inflation above 5%, GDP drops of 2–3%, or loss of 5–10% of GOP voters. Bessent’s Laffer Curve claim (optimal 10–15% tariffs) underscores revenue limits, with higher rates (e.g., 60%) risking trade collapse and undermining nationalist goals. These ideologies falter if costs outweigh promised benefits, as seen in historical tariff failures. The Mandate for Leadership at www.mandateforleadership.org details these policies. If you’d like, I can model specific tariff scenarios, analyze voter data, or explore historical collapses further. |
