Grok, tariff game theory.
Conclusion With 10–15% tariffs failing to significantly alter trade volumes (5–10% import drop) or deficits (3–6% reduction, $100–150 billion) and creating only 100,000–200,000 jobs, Project 2025’s populist conservatism and economic nationalism face an early pain point. By 2026–2027, 3–5% inflation, 1–2% GDP drop, and minimal jobs shift to Low Tariff + Oppose, with 5–7% voter loss and 5–10% protests. High tariffs (20–60%) worsen outcomes (3–7% price declines, <200,000 jobs), leading to collapse by 2028 with GOP electoral defeats. Bessent’s Laffer Curve revenue ($300–400 billion) doesn’t compensate for job and trade shortfalls, undermining nationalist promises. Retrenchment to minimal tariffs is possible but unlikely. The Mandate for Leadership at www.mandateforleadership.org details these policies. If you’d like, I can simulate specific trade data, analyze voter shifts, or explore mitigation options for Project 2025. |
