So AI voodoo magic on a discounted cashflow model of COHU
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What is the discounted cashflow valuation of COHU based on the results of the last 3 years?
Based on the latest available data and DCF modeling, the discounted cash flow (DCF) valuation of Cohu, Inc. (COHU)—using the results of the last three years—yields a fair value of approximately $14.79 per share.
Key Points from the DCF Analysis
Revenue Trend: Cohu’s revenue has declined significantly over the last three years, from $812.8 million in 2022 to $401.8 million in 2024.
Profitability: The company reported negative EBITDA and net income in 2024, reflecting current operational challenges.
DCF Assumptions: The model uses a weighted average cost of capital (WACC) of about 11% and projects continued revenue contraction before stabilizing, with a long-term growth rate of 3.5%.
Enterprise and Equity Value: The DCF model calculates an enterprise value of $506 million, subtracts net debt, and divides by roughly 47 million diluted shares outstanding to reach the per-share equity value.
Result: The resulting intrinsic value is $14.79 per share, which is below the current market price of around $17.73 as of May 2025.
Summary Table
Metric Value
DCF Fair Value (per share) $14.79
Current Market Price (May 2025) $17.73
Revenue (2024) $401.8 million
Net Income (2024) -$69.8 million
WACC ~11%
Terminal Growth Rate 3.5%
Conclusion:
The DCF valuation for Cohu, Inc. (COHU), based on the last three years of results, is $14.79 per share. This suggests the stock may be trading above its fundamental intrinsic value, reflecting the company’s recent financial headwinds and projected slow recovery.
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