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Pastimes : The Philosophical Porch
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To: Rarebird who wrote (26033)6/7/2025 11:10:46 AM
From: Real Man1 Recommendation

Recommended By
last2no2

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I am considering going long bonds, definitely cooling inflation and a hated market. Layoffs are picking up
dramatically, so there could be forced selling from 401k buyers. That is the key reason for bearishness.
A bubble market, a generation of investors who saw every dip bought and never saw a real bear market.
We just had a record drawdown in SP500 in April like March 2008, and the recession has not arrived yet.
I don’t have bearish bets, I am considering getting long treasury bonds, 20+ duration, not Tbills. The ECB cut
rates again increasing the gap with US.

US markets have a classic bubble look as bubble profits are used to pay creditors.
Eventually the bubble pops and the creditors and the repo men get everything. Basically the jig is up
when the bubble cannot expand fast enough to cover debt repayments.
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