SMI CEO says no PCIe 6.0 SSDs for PC 'until 2030', Nvidia demands SSDs with 100 million IOPS — Wallace C. Kou on the future of SSDs
tomshardware.com
Especially for enterprise and automotive, we will grow much faster because the base is still small. For client SSDs, we already have about 30% market share. We are confident we can grow to 40% within three years — maybe even two years, depending on how fast PCIe 5.0 drives become mainstream.
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With eight NAND channel PCIe 5.0 controller [the SM2508], this is the first time we have had a real opportunity to serve the top tier. In the past, we never had the chance. Now, among 3D NAND makers, we have won four of them, and nearly all of the module makers. So, when [the] high-end PCIe Gen5 [platform] starts to ramp [at module makers] in July, we will have more than 60% market share (This is a targeted projection). There are only two makers I cannot name, but they have their in-house solutions. Eventually, I believe they will also come to us — I cannot say 100%, but that is my belief. So, 60% is our goal.
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Even for four-channel [PCIe 5.0 SM2504XT controller] mainstream CPO (Client Platform OEM) designs, which will start ramping in the middle of next year, we expect to win minimum 50% market share.
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Today, we are about 20% of the 1.2 billion smartphone storage units, but within three years, we will grow to 30% for eMMC and UFS. I guarantee it, because the market trend favors us.
Now, eMMC is declining in smartphones and UFS 2.2 is taking over. But eMMC is still growing in other areas — automotive, set-top boxes, smart TVs, IoT devices, even AI glasses. eMMC shipments are about 120 million units today and will grow to 130 million next year, and most of those devices use Silicon Motion controllers. Major DRAM players have exited eMMC because they do not see profits there anymore — that is where we stepped in.
Similarly, UFS 2.2 is growing in value-line smartphones. We see a trend where Chinese smartphone makers — Oppo, Vivo, Xiaomi, Honor — are moving away from UMCP and instead using discrete NAND and LPDDR4/5 DRAM separately because it is cheaper and good enough. They use standard UFS solutions, and that is why module makers are jumping in.
This also forces NAND makers to decide: should they continue offering UFS 2.2 integrated solutions, or should they work with Silicon Motion and outsource the controller and solution design?
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So far, about two-thirds of our revenue comes from client SSDs, and about 30% comes from mobile storage. Mobile might even go a little higher this year. The rest — enterprise is still very small, and expandable storage is even smaller, just about 5%.
But we are seeing growth in automotive — automotive already reached 5% of our revenue starting from Q3 last year. We expect automotive to grow and exceed 10% by 2026 – 2027.
Enterprise should also grow — we expect it to reach around 5% to 10% of revenue by 2026 – 2027. Overall, non-client SSD and mobile segments will likely grow to around 20% by 2026 – 2027.
So we want to become more balanced across segments. Also, we expect that by Q4, we will have a $1 billion revenue. Next year should be even stronger, and in the second half, you will start to see [new products] CR (customer ramp) revenue and new design wins ramping up.
Even with tariffs and all the uncertainty, many investors and analysts tell us that most U.S. semiconductor companies are trimming down their guidance for the second half. But we look very promising because we are gaining market share, and our design-in pipeline is very strong. That’s why we feel very comfortable with what we are doing today. |
