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Strategies & Market Trends : Technical analysis for shorts & longs

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Nov 7 4:00 PM EST

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To: Johnny Canuck who wrote (63955)	6/15/2025 2:12:36 PM
From: Johnny Canuck	1 Recommendation Read Replies (1) of 67756

Index Update June 13 2025 Market sold off due to the Middle East conflict between Israel and Iran. The indices were down 2 percent at one point but closed down on 1 percent. I does mean traders thought it was over done and contained for now. Watch Monday to see what traders really think after thinking about it for the weekend. SP500 essentially failing the first attempt at the 52 week high. What happens next is more important than what happened on Friday. Watch to see if the market breaks down further. This news may be more of a reason to take profits after an extended run. So far the pullback has been contained and despite the higher intra-day volatility, the close of less than 1 percent which is within the normal volatility range. DOW closing below the 200 day SMA. A confirmation day on Monday would mean crack in the old economy stocks are starting to appear. DOW transports were already below the 200 day SMA and it crossed below the 20 day EMA. A confirmation day on Monday confirms a sell off is starting in that sector and the DOW may show more weakness. DOW utilities waiting short term. It looks like traders are unsure of the direction of long bond rates. TLT failed to confirm the break of the 50 day SMA. Dead cat bounce pattern continuing. There is the potential to test the 52 week low again. A higher low would be more constructive for potentially lower long bond rates. USD bounced at the 52 week low. Move to a safer currency in reaction to the Middle East conflict. Watch to see if the bounce is sustained. I suspect it will be short term in nature depend on if the Middle East conflict accelerates. COMPQ failed the first try at the previous 52 week high. Without the Middle East news this would be just considered normal profit taking. Watch to see what happens next, more selling or an another attempt at the high. Russell 2000 failing attempt to break 200 day SMA. Normal profit taking for now. Watch to see if the breaks and confirms a break of the 20 day EMA to indicate something more serious is about to happen. Financials breaking out the short term consolidation pattern and the first support zone. Watch to see if it breaks down further to indicate something is wrong with the economy. Consumer discretionary just waiting short term. No direction yet. The time to worry is if it breaks down. It would mean consumer are pulling back for spending except for essentials. xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

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