How the Iran-Israel conflict could destabilize Pakistan
Haroon Janjua in Islamabad
June 18, 2025 The Israel-Iran conflict could trigger new security and economic challenges for Pakistan, which is already grappling with militancy, separatism and economic instability.
The escalating Israel-Iran conflict has far-reaching security, geopolitical and economic implications for Iran's neighbor Pakistan.
Iran shares a 909-kilometer (560-mile) border with Pakistan's restive Balochistan province. On Monday, Pakistani officials announced several border crossings with Iran were closed indefinitely.
The crossings at Taftan and Gabd-Rimdan in southwest Balochistan remain open for Pakistani nationals seeking to return home. On Wednesday, hundreds of Pakistanis who are usually based in Iran arrived at the Taftan border crossing to make their way further into their homeland.
Pakistan's army chief, Field Marshal Asim Munir, met with US President Donald Trump on Wednesday during his official visit to Washington. The meeting is deemed significant in the light of the ongoing Iran-Israel conflict.
Pakistan's relationship with Iran
The relationship between predominantly Sunni Pakistan and Shiite-majority Iran has been complex, with the cross-border region affected by attacks from Baloch separatists who are fighting a war of independence against the Pakistani state.
The Balochistan Liberation Army (BLA) accuses Pakistan's central government of unfairly exploiting the region's natural resources.
The BLA has for decades launched attacks against the government, armed forces and even Chinese interests in the region.
The Israel-Iran conflict marks a dangerous turning point not only for Middle East geopolitics, but for Pakistan, according to US-based Pakistan analyst Raza Rumi. To Islamabad, Rumi told DW, "the implications are [anything but] distant."
"As a country with close ties to key Gulf allies and a complex relationship with Iran, Pakistan will be under pressure to maintain neutrality while safeguarding its strategic interests," Rumi added.
As fighting between Israel and Iran entered its sixth day on Wednesday, the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) announced that they were attacking Tehran, Iran's capital, fueling fears of an all-out war in the region.
Increasing conflict and a potential collapse of the Islamist regime in Tehran could have serious security implications for Pakistan. Also, separatist attacks in Balochistan could impact Pakistan's border security and internal stability — challenging its already strained security apparatus.
"There is the thorny issue of the Baloch region [in Iran] and a collapse in Tehran could trigger autonomy claims which will embolden the Baloch in Pakistan. Iran and Pakistan have been at loggerheads over this issue in the past," Ghaffar Hussain, a London-based security, expert, told DW.
For analyst Rumi, "Islamabad would have to bolster border surveillance and work carefully in balancing law enforcement with diplomatic sensitivity toward Tehran."
"A war on the western border [with Iran] is problematic for Pakistan, especially its restive Balochistan province," said Muhammad Shoaib, an assistant professor at Quaid-i-Azam University.
Shoaib added that any change to the status quo will be troublesome and a weakened regime would also "present a security challenge."
dw.com
Pakistan has also been mentioned within Israel as another target of US/Israel. US/Israel have been supporters of the BLA, a jihadist separatist militia in Balochistan. |
