Ironically, while I was recently getting some pretty strong technical sell signals, I had a timing hit for a significant tradeable low in the markets that landed directly over this past weekend. The analysis that goes along with that also has ties to the ’87 crash. It may end up just being fun with numbers, but in case we did just made an important (at least tradeable) low, here’s the math.
The low on 4/21/25, that marked the beginning of the steady rise to the secondary high (what I’m treating as the “orthodox” or “technically confirmed” high) on 5/19/25, was 61 CD from the ATH on 2/19/25. The low on 9/22/87, that marked the beginning of the rise to the secondary high on 10/5/87, was 28 CD from the then ATH on 8/25/87. The ratio of the 2025-to-1987 timespans is 2.179.
What’s potentially special about that 2.179 ratio? 1.618034^1.618034 = 2.17846.
The high on 5/19/25 that marked the “orthodox” secondary high was (a Fibo) 89 CD from the all-time high on 2/19/25. The high on 10/5/87 that marked that secondary high was 41 CD from the ATH on 8/25/87. The ratio of those timespans is 2.171 (close). Coincidence?? Maybe. And maybe the geometry hits for 10/5/87 and 5/19/25 are also a coincidence. But if not...
Using the 10/20/87 intraday low, and applying the 2.178 ratio, puts the upcoming low exactly on Saturday, 6/21/25.
More Fibo:
5/19/25 + 34CD = 6/22/25 (Sunday)
(5/19/25 – 2/19/25) / (6/22/25 – 2/19/25) = 1.382 (1+0.618034^2)
So if all this amounts to more than just fun with numbers, we probably saw the closing low on Friday, 6/20, with the intraday low today, 6/23. The near-record oversold readings from April 7 may have generated enough fuel for the markets to still have enough left to generate even higher prices. Also, the “wall of worry” has reached new heights with the bombing of Iran’s nuclear sites. So that climb may now be underway. Any move above the 6/11 highs without going below today’s low should confirm. |
