Market Snapshot
| Dow | 43089.02 | +507.24 | (1.19%) | | Nasdaq | 19912.55 | +281.56 | (1.43%) | | SP 500 | 6092.18 | +67.01 | (1.11%) | | 10-yr Note |
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| | NYSE | Adv 2041 | Dec 742 | Vol 1.24 bln | | Nasdaq | Adv 3445 | Dec 1070 | Vol 8.37 bln |
Industry Watch
| Strong: Financials, Technology, Communication Services, Health Care |
| | Weak: Consumer Staples, Energy |
Moving the Market
-- Optimism about Israel-Iran ceasefire
-- Falling price of oil
-- S&P 500 approaching record high from February (6147)
-- Treasury yields continue to slide
-- Fed Chair Powell expresses open mind about policy path
-- Senate leaders aiming to get reconciliation bill passed and signed into law by July 4
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Closing Stock Market Summary
24-Jun-25 16:20 ET
Dow +507.24 at 43089.02, Nasdaq +281.56 at 19912.55, S&P +67.01 at 6092.18
[BRIEFING.COM] The stock market traded with a positive bias throughout today's session, driven by the following catalysts:
- President Trump's announcement of a ceasefire between Israel and Iran.
- A continued drop in oil prices. WTI crude futures, which topped $78.00/bbl yesterday, fell another 6.1% today to $64.46/bbl.
- A drop in Treasury yields following a consumer confidence report for June that was weaker than expected and showed a drop in average 12-month inflation expectations.
- The 2-yr note yield settled down two basis points at 3.81%, and the 10-yr note yield settled down two basis points at 4.30%.
- An encouraging full-year outlook from cruise line operator Carnival (CCL 25.70, +1.66, +6.88%).
- A drive by Senate leadership to get the reconciliation bill passed and on the president's desk to sign by July 4.
Separately, Fed Chair Powell appeared before the House Financial Services Committee to deliver his semiannual monetary policy report. He expressed his belief that tariff increases will likely push up prices this year and impact economic activity but also showed an open mind on future policy action. The Fed Chair conceded that many paths are possible, one of which is that inflation could be cooler than expected, which would suggest the Fed could cut sooner.
Mr. Powell has inferred as much in the past, but his even-keeled demeanor and open-mindedness today provided some added comfort food for a market already feeling a good bit of relief that the Israel-Iran conflict has de-escalated.
There was broad-based buying interest that took the S&P 500 as high as 6,101.76 shortly before today's close. The mega-cap stocks and semiconductor stocks steered that move, but the prevalent bullish bias also manifested itself in the outperformance of high-beta stocks and small-cap stocks, which are one in the same in some instances.
The information technology sector (+1.6%), underpinned by some hefty gains in its semiconductor components, including NVIDIA (NVDA 147.82, +3.65, +2.53%), paced today's advance, along with the financials (+1.5%), communication services (+1.4%), and health care (+1.2%) sectors. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index surged 3.8%, leaving it up 27.4% for the quarter.
The energy sector (-1.5%), which fell in sympathy with oil prices, and the defensive-oriented consumer staples sector (-0.03%) were the only sectors to lose ground.
Advancers led decliners by a nearly 3-to-1 margin at the NYSE and by a better than 3-to-1 margin at Nasdaq. Trading volume was above average at the NYSE but below average at the Nasdaq.
- S&P 500: +3.6% YTD
- Nasdaq: +3.1% YTD
- DJIA: +1.3% YTD
- S&P 400: -1.3% YTD
- Russell 2000: -3.1% YTD
Reviewing today's data:
- The Q1 Current Account Deficit widened to $450.2 billion from a downwardly revised $312.0 billion (from -$303.9 billion) in the fourth quarter.
- April FHFA Housing Price Index (Actual -0.4%; Briefing.com consensus 0.0%; prior revised to 0.0% from -0.1%).
- April S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index (Actual 3.4%; Briefing.com consensus 4.1%; prior 4.1%)
- The Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index slumped to 93.0 in June (Briefing.com consensus 99.0) from an upwardly revised 98.4 (from 98.0) in May. In the same period a year ago, the index stood at 97.8.
- The key takeaway from the report is that consumers were less positive about business conditions and job availability, which is a perception that could lead to reduced discretionary spending activity.
Buyers calling the shots
24-Jun-25 15:30 ET
Dow +546.06 at 43127.84, Nasdaq +295.84 at 19926.83, S&P +73.49 at 6098.66
[BRIEFING.COM] The S&P 500 ended Friday at 5,967.84. On Monday it climbed above 6,000, and today it has kissed the 6,100 level with buyers calling the shots.
There has been minimal interruption from sellers, other than in individual stocks. Today's bid has a grounding in the continued outperformance of the mega-cap stocks, a surge in the semiconductor stocks, and a pro-cyclical orientation that is manifesting itself in the outperformance of the small-cap stocks.
Falling Treasury yields have provided added support. Today, the 10-yr note yield settled down two basis points at 4.30%, but that leaves it down 10 basis points for the month and 28 basis points for the year, notwithstanding all of the talk of deficit angst and potential tariff inflation pressures.
Running with the bulls
24-Jun-25 15:05 ET
Dow +546.01 at 43127.79, Nasdaq +312.00 at 19942.99, S&P +74.29 at 6099.46
[BRIEFING.COM] The stock market continues to trade with a dual measure of relief and confidence that has the S&P 500 on the brink of revisiting its all-time high of 6,147.43.
Today's move has bull market action written all over it. The participation is broad-based, value and growth stocks are both trading higher, and high-beta stocks are outperforming. The move is also being supported by a drop in interest rates and a fear of missing out on further gains that is squeezing sidelined investors sitting on cash back into the market.
The mega-cap stocks, as a cohort, continue to shine. The Vanguard Mega Cap Growth Index Fund (MGK 358.15, +5.36, +1.52%) is up 1.5% versus a 1.2% gain for the market cap-weighted S&P 500 and a 1.0% gain for the equal-weighted S&P 500.
The CBOE Volatility Index is down 12.0% to 17.45.
S&P 500 rallies 70 points as COIN, DXCM, and UBER lead; OXY drops on oil weakness
24-Jun-25 14:25 ET
Dow +511.60 at 43093.38, Nasdaq +297.70 at 19928.69, S&P +70.00 at 6095.17
[BRIEFING.COM] The S&P 500 (+1.16%) is up a clean 70 points this afternoon, just off highs on a modest dip in the last half hour.
Briefly, S&P 500 constituents Coinbase Global (COIN 344.59, +37.00, +12.03%), Dexcom (DXCM 86.42, +6.58, +8.24%), and Uber (UBER 91.74, +6.50, +7.63%) dot the top of the standings. COIN is today's top gain getter amid a rise in crypto prices, DXCM rallies behind comments from RFK Jr. who said the Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) is preparing to launch one of the largest campaigns in its history to promote wearable health devices, like continuous glucose monitors (CGMs), with a goal of universal adoption within four years. For its part, UBER's gains are driven by news that Lime, a company it backs, is preparing for a U.S. IPO, and by the launch of a driverless ride-hailing service in Atlanta with Waymo.
Meanwhile, Occidental Petro (OXY 42.33, -1.62, -3.69%) slides as oil prices dipped further on Tuesday in reaction to the widely covered ceasefire agreement between Israel and Iran.
Gold sinks 1.8% as Iran/Israel ceasefire eases geopolitical fears, dovish Fed adds pressure
24-Jun-25 14:00 ET
Dow +511.51 at 43093.29, Nasdaq +300.53 at 19931.52, S&P +70.38 at 6095.55
[BRIEFING.COM] The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite (+1.53%) is near HoDs in current trading, up north of 300 points.
Gold futures settled $61.10 lower (-1.8%) at $3,333.90/oz, as news of a ceasefire between Israel and Iran sharply reduced demand for safe-haven assets. Coupled with dovish signals from Fed Vice Chair Michelle Bowman as well as Fed Chair Powell's testimony, the decline reflects both fading geopolitical risk premiums and elevated uncertainty around U.S. monetary policy.
Meanwhile, the U.S. Dollar Index is down -0.6% to $97.85.
Carnival rides wave of strong cruise demand, boosts outlook on Q2 onboard spending surge (CCL)
Carnival (CCL) is cruising sharply higher following a robust 2Q25 earnings report that exceeded expectations and included an upward revision to FY25 guidance, reflecting resilient cruise demand despite broader macroeconomic headwinds. The company’s strong performance was propelled by robust close-in bookings and elevated onboard spending, which drove record Q2 revenues of $6.33 bln, up 9.5% yr/yr, surpassing the $6.21 bln FactSet consensus estimate.
While travel demand has softened in many areas due to rising economic pressures, cruises continue to demonstrate remarkable resilience, offering a compelling value proposition compared to land-based vacations, with bundled packages and all-inclusive pricing attracting cost-conscious consumers seeking predictable vacation costs.
- CCL's Q2 adjusted EPS soared 218% yr/yr to $0.35, comfortably beating the consensus estimate of $0.24, underpinned by strong operational execution and favorable pricing dynamics. A key driver of this EPS growth was a 6.4% yr/yr increase in net yields (in constant currency), which outperformed CCL’s March guidance by 200 bps, reflecting the company’s ability to capture higher revenue per passenger.
- Elevated onboard spending was a significant contributor, fueled by strong uptake of bundled packages that include drinks, Wi-Fi, and excursions, alongside premium offerings like spa services and specialty dining. Higher ticket prices, particularly in high-demand regions like the Caribbean and Mediterranean, further bolstered net yields, while disciplined cost management amplified profitability.
- CCL’s bullish FY25 outlook underscores confidence in sustained demand, with the company raising its full-year adjusted EPS guidance to $1.97 from $1.83. Although Q3 EPS guidance of $1.30 fell slightly short of expectations, the company projects Q3 net yields to rise approximately 3.5% above 2024’s already strong levels (in constant currency), signaling continued pricing power. For FY25, CCL projects net yields to jump by 5.0%.
- Record total customer deposits of $8.5 bln highlight robust booking momentum, while cumulative advanced bookings for 2026 are tracking in line with 2025’s record levels and at historically high prices (in constant currency), reinforcing CCL’s strong market position. This forward-looking strength reflects consumer enthusiasm for cruise vacations and CCL’s ability to lock in high-value bookings well in advance, providing visibility into future revenue streams.
- CCL’s impressive beat-and-raise performance bodes well for peers Royal Caribbean Cruises (RCL) and Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings (NCLH), set to report Q2 earnings on July 24 and July 31, respectively, as industry-wide tailwinds like strong bookings and yield growth are likely to lift their results, provided they execute similarly on cost control and onboard monetization.
The company's Q2 results and raised FY25 guidance highlight the enduring appeal of cruises as a cost-effective, high-value vacation option amid a challenging economic backdrop. The company’s ability to capitalize on robust demand through elevated onboard spending and favorable pricing dynamics positions it well for continued growth. With record bookings and strong consumer loyalty, CCL is steering toward a prosperous 2025.
TD Synnex higher on Q1 report, bodes well for tech spending heading into earnings season (SNX)
TD Synnex (SNX +6%) initially traded sharply lower despite reporting huge EPS upside with its Q2 (May) report this morning, but recovered nicely during the earnings call. This was its largest EPS beat of the past six quarters and a nice bounce back following a miss in Q1. Revenues rose a healthy 7.2% yr/yr to $14.95 bln, which was nicely above the high end of guidance of $13.9-14.7 bln. SNX also guided Q3 (Aug) EPS and revs in-line although the mid-points were slightly below analyst expectations.
- SNX is a name we like to keep an eye on to gauge enterprise spending levels for network equipment and PCs. Also, SNX reports early in the earnings reporting cycle, so it gives us a sense of what to expect when earnings season rolls in next month. TD Synnex does not manufacture anything. It's more of a distributor of third party IT products, from software to servers and storage systems. When a business wants to spend on IT, SNX acts as the point person, putting everything together.
- All regions and major technologies experienced growth during the quarter. SNX noted Software continues to be really strong, especially in virtualization, with 20% billings growth fueled by cloud cybersecurity and infrastructure software. SNX also is seeing strong growth in PCs driven by the refresh cycle and SNX is finally seeing growth in networking after multiple weak quarters. Public cloud continues to grow double-digits and SNX sees no reason for a slowdown there.
- Non-GAAP gross billings is a key metric for SNX. It grew 12.1% yr/yr (+11.3% CC) to $21.6 bln, which was above the high end of its $19.7-20.7 bln prior guidance. We think there may be some disappointment with its Q3 guidance for this metric at $21-22 bln, which is flattish with Q2. In fairness, SNX tends to be conservative with this metric and investors do not seem too worried. Billings growth was seen across all regions and major technologies.
- We think another reason the stock moved higher during the call was SNX alleviating concerns about its hyperscaler segment, called Hyve. Recall that the stock gapped lower in late March when SNX described a "demand shortfall" at Hyve, with a major customer delaying a shipment from Q1 to Q2. On the call, SNX said that Hyve grew gross billings in the high teens and did well in Q2. This seems to have put concerns to rest.
It has been a roller coaster ride for SNX today. After initially trading sharply lower following Q2 results, the stock bounced during the earnings call and is up nicely now. There was a good amount of bullish commentary on the call with SNX showing strength across all regions and major technologies, especially software and the PC refresh cycle continues to be a tailwind. Also, we really think SNX calmed some nerves with Hyve.
KB Home's lowered FY25 outlook overshadows Q2 earnings beat, pressuring shares (KBH)
KB Home (KBH) narrowly surpassed subdued 2Q25 EPS expectations, supported by $200 mln in share repurchases during the quarter, but revenue declined by 10.5% yr/yr to $1.53 bln and home deliveries slid by 11% to 3,120 units. The revenue and home delivery declines reflect broader industry challenges, as affordability constraints -- exacerbated by mortgage rates near 7% -- and weakening consumer confidence continue to suppress demand.
Lennar’s (LEN) Q2 earnings on June 16 underscored these headwinds, with an EPS miss and bearish Q3 guidance, signaling persistent pressure across the homebuilding sector as buyers hesitate amid economic uncertainty and elevated borrowing costs.
- KBH’s downwardly revised FY25 guidance is the primary driver of today’s stock pressure, with housing revenue now projected at $6.3–$6.5 bln, down from $6.6–$7.0 bln. The average selling price forecast was also trimmed to $480,000–$490,000, reflecting a cautious pricing strategy to balance affordability and profitability. CEO Jeffrey Mezger cited softening market conditions as a key factor.
- To stimulate sales, KBH has leaned on incentives, including mortgage rate buydowns and price adjustments, which have eroded pricing power and contributed to the reduced outlook. These concessions, alongside higher land costs, are squeezing margins, aligning KBH’s challenges with industry peers navigating a sluggish housing market.
- On that note, housing gross profit margin has become a key metric for KBH and its peers. In Q2, housing gross profit margin declined to 19.7%, down 150 basis points from 21.2% in the prior-year period, reflecting weaker pricing power, increased incentives, and elevated land costs. The company also lowered its FY25 housing gross profit margin guidance to 19.0–19.4%, signaling ongoing pressure from lower ASPs and concessions like mortgage rate buydowns, which were noted as significant in Q1.
- While KB Home has achieved some cost efficiencies, such as reduced construction times and lower direct costs, these have been insufficient to offset the impact of a softer market and competitive pricing strategies.
Expectations for KBH’s Q2 were already tempered, evidenced by a 19% year-to-date stock decline, as investors braced for continued housing market weakness following Q1’s disappointing results and LEN’s cautious outlook. The company's lowered outlook amplifies fears of a prolonged and deeper downturn in the new housing market, with persistent affordability issues and softening demand likely to further compress margins and earnings through 2025. KBH’s disciplined capital allocation and strong balance sheet provide some cushion, but near-term challenges remain formidable.
FactSet posts solid gains as Q3 organic ASV growth outshines EPS miss (FDS)
FactSet (FDS) is posting solid gains despite reporting 3Q25 EPS of $4.27, missing consensus estimates. The market’s enthusiasm is driven by robust organic Annual Subscription Value (ASV) growth of $22.6 mln, with CFO Helen Shan noting in the earnings press release that “third quarter organic ASV growth is accelerating as we meet client demands and execute diligently.” Additionally, the company reaffirmed its FY25 guidance, signaling confidence in sustained demand. These positives, coupled with 166 net new client additions, are overshadowing the EPS miss, as investors focus on FDS’s recurring revenue strength and client expansion.
- Organic ASV, which increased from $19.6 mln in Q2, is a critical metric for FDS, as it reflects the annualized value of recurring subscription revenues, excluding one-time or project-based services. This 4.5% yr/yr growth to $2.297 bln underscores FDS’s successful pivot toward managed services and enterprise solutions, which offer higher predictability and stability compared to volatile project-based revenues.
- As financial institutions increasingly demand integrated data and analytics platforms, FDS’s focus on recurring revenue streams -- driven by its workstation solutions, portfolio analytics, and AI-enhanced tools -- positions it to capture long-term client commitments. The acceleration in ASV growth, particularly in wealth management and corporate segments, reflects FDS’s ability to deepen client relationships and expand its footprint in high-margin, subscription-based offerings.
- FDS’s client count grew by 166 net new clients in Q3, reaching 8,811 as of May 31, 2025, with user count surpassing 220,000, driven by strong demand from wealth managers and corporates. Key drivers include the integration of clients from the Irwin acquisition, which bolstered FDS’s corporate client base, and growing adoption of its wealth management solutions, such as portfolio analytics and ESG reporting tools. This client growth fueled organic revenue growth of 4.4% yr/yr to $577.2 mln, as new clients contributed to higher subscription volumes and cross-selling opportunities.
- Despite the positive topline metrics, FDS’s Q3 adjusted EPS of $4.27 declined 2.3% yr/yr, missing estimates, while the adjusted operating margin contracted by 270 bps to 36.8%, reflecting higher investments in technology and personnel costs. Incoming CEO Sanoke Viswanathan, announced on June 3. faces the challenge of reversing this margin pressure to drive profitability. Potential avenues include optimizing operating expenses through automation, particularly in data processing and client support, and leveraging economies of scale from the growing client base to improve margins.
FDS’s reaffirmed FY25 guidance and accelerating organic ASV growth signal a robust outlook, overshadowing the Q3 EPS miss and driving investor confidence. The company’s client expansion and focus on recurring revenue position it well to capitalize on demand for data and analytics, with incoming CEO Viswanathan poised to enhance profitability.
BNY Mellon eyes Northern Trust merger to supercharge custody and wealth management businesses (BK)
Northern Trust (NTRS) is surging following a Wall Street Journal report that BNY Mellon (BK) approached its smaller rival to discuss a possible merger. While no formal bid has been made, the exploratory talks signal BK's ambition to consolidate its position in the asset servicing and wealth management industries. This development follows closely on the heels of another transformative deal in the financial industry -- Capital One’s (COF) $35 bln acquisition of Discover Financial Services, approved earlier in 2025 -- which underscores a broader wave of M&A driven by stabilizing interest rates and a lighter regulatory touch under the current administration.
- BK and NTRS are titans in asset servicing, but their operational strengths diverge, creating a compelling case for strategic synergy. BK, with a market capitalization of $65.55 bln, is the world’s largest custodian bank, overseeing more than $53 trillion in assets under custody and administration. Its primary lines of business include custody and fund services, investment management, and treasury services, generating net interest income (NII) largely through securities lending, deposit spreads, and financing activities tied to its institutional client base.
- NTRS, with a $21.76 bln market cap, specializes in wealth management and investment services, managing $1.3 trillion in assets under management (AUM) and $1.4 trillion under custody as of 2023. Its NII stems from loan portfolios and deposit margins, particularly from high-net-worth clients and institutional investors.
- A merger between the two would amplify BK’s wealth management capabilities, where NTRS’s relationship-driven, high-touch model complements BK’s institutional focus. NTRS’s expertise in private wealth could enhance BK’s Pershing platform and bolster its Alts Bridge initiative for alternative asset servicing, creating a hybrid powerhouse spanning institutional and ultra-high-net-worth clients. Additionally, NTRS’s Global Investment Stewardship division, leveraging AI for compliance and ESG reporting, would complement BK’s tech-driven initiatives like Alts Bridge, potentially driving fee-based revenue synergies.
- NTRS is coming off a solid 1Q25 performance on April 22, 2025, with EPS exceeding consensus estimates. Key factors included a 6% yr/yr increase in wealth management fees, fueled by rising AUM due to favorable equity markets, and a 4% uptick in custody and fund administration fees from higher transaction volumes. NII grew by 7%, supported by higher deposit rates, though margin pressures persisted due to competition.
- Despite the strategic fit, BK faces significant risks in pursuing this merger. Regulatory scrutiny is a primary concern, as the combined entity would dominate the custody and wealth management sectors, raising potential antitrust issues. While the Trump administration’s approval of COF’s Discover deal suggests a more permissive environment, the U.S. Department of Justice’s recent focus on banking consolidation (e.g., the blocked PNC-Bank of America merger) indicates hurdles. Also, integration risks are substantial, given the complexity of merging BK’s global footprint across 35 countries with NTRS’s regionally concentrated operations. IT system harmonization and client retention could strain resources, as seen in similar megadeals.
A BK/NTRS merger presents an attractive opportunity to create a dominant player in asset servicing and wealth management, leveraging complementary strengths and technological investments. The potential for revenue synergies and enhanced market positioning makes this a deal worth watching, though execution and regulatory navigation will be critical.
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