<< happening this weekend... >> I don't know of anything in particular, but all of us followers are anticipating the NDA announcement at any time - as well as more positive( hope ) test progress on trials. It is my observation that most startling news is released over weekends. That's why they call it 'Merger Monday'.
The market-strategy of this is of course, to give a full week of trading to maximize the gains generated by the good news. Management owns stock too.<g>
It follows then that as each week passes, the weekends become more likely to contain the NDA announcement that will kick off that hoped for 6 to 9 month rally to 50+ in LGND. And with all the time that has passed in this base - between 10 and 20, once the top comes off the base - break-out, it won't take much time to reach 25 to 30.
Considering all of this, I for one want to have my full position - plus a trading kicker - in place for when the NEWS comes. As more and more investors and traders adopt this posture, you will see the effect of 'buying LGND ahead of the weekend'. It occurred last Friday, when LGND was quietly trading at 14 1/8. My buy orders did not get executed at 14 of course. Sellers went on strike. LGND popped up to 15 suddenly. The lesson of that will cause traders to act earlier this week. This brings about P2's triangle. And the usual future discounting effect of the market. If you wait for the news, most of the gain usually has occurred, or you will buy into a Gap-up opening that will eat up much profit.
All of this can collapse of course. But it would take something to negate our assumptions about the NDA filing, and the positive future of LGND.
This 'weekend effect' is kind of equal-but-opposite to the December Friday sell-offs in the market, where traders were reluctant to hold long positions in most stocks over the weekend. The weekend effect will end by 1 hour after opening on Mondays. To be safe, I bought part of my position during today's weakness in LGND. The bid has already firmed up since then. It is now 2:20pm ET. Bid 14 9/16. If it weakens to 14 or so, I'll fill out my position. Then start accumulating calls on weakness. When she blows, it could be spectacular!
Incidentally, I sold 1/2 my position into the sharp rally to 16 last week. Now struggling to re-build.
Sorry for the long-winded reply. Several have asked. Now you have it.
Good luck longs,
Herbert |
