Market Snapshot
| Dow | 42982.43 | -106.59 | (-0.25%) | | Nasdaq | 19973.57 | +61.02 | (0.31%) | | SP 500 | 6092.16 | -0.02 | (0.00%) | | 10-yr Note |
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| | NYSE | Adv 811 | Dec 1947 | Vol 1.10 bln | | Nasdaq | Adv 1629 | Dec 2863 | Vol 8.32 bln |
Industry Watch
| Strong: Information Technology, Communication Services |
| | Weak: Real Estate, Utilities, Materials, Industrials, Consumer Staples, Consumer Discretionary |
Moving the Market
--S&P 500 and NASDAQ approach record highs from February
--Ongoing hopes for a lasting Israel-Iran ceasefire
--Micron (MU) earnings after the close
--NVIDIA (NVDA) sports outsized gain
| Closing Stock Market Summary
25-Jun-25 16:25 ET
Dow -106.59 at 42982.43, Nasdaq +61.02 at 19973.57, S&P -0.02 at 6092.16
[BRIEFING.COM] The S&P 500 started today's session 0.9% from its all-time high, and after six-and-a-half hours of trading, that's where it remained. There was no real push today to hit a new record, as most stocks fell prone to some profit-taking interest. Nonetheless, because a handful of key stocks did not, the market cap-weighted S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite stood their ground.
That would include NVIDIA (NVDA 154.31, +6.41, +4.33%), Alphabet (GOOG 171.49, +3.75, +2.24%), Apple (AAPL 201.56, +1.26, +0.63%), and Microsoft (MSFT 492.27, +2.16, +0.44%). Collectively, those four stocks have a market cap of approximately $12.2 trillion, which was weighty enough at the index level to offset the loss in FedEx (FDX 222.00, -7.51, -3.27%), which has a market cap of just $55 billion, following its earnings report and disappointing outlook.
It was even enough to cancel out the weakness in Tesla (TSLA 327.55, -12.92, -3.79%), which dropped on a report that its European car sales declined 27.9% yr/yr in May. Market breadth, though, told the real story of today's trade. Decliners led advancers by a better than 2-to-1 margin at the NYSE and by a 7-to-4 margin at the Nasdaq.
The Russell 2000 was down 1.2%; the S&P Midcap 400 was down 0.8%; the equal-weighted S&P 500 was down 0.7%; and eight of the 11 S&P 500 sectors finished lower with losses ranging from 0.4% (financials) to 2.5% (real estate). Today's session was, more or less, a day of attrition, but it still ended with the Nasdaq 100 extending its reach into record territory.
It did so on the leadership of the aforementioned mega-cap stocks, which propped up the information technology (+1.2%) and communication services (+0.5%) sectors. The health care sector (+0.1%) was the only other sector to record a gain. Separately, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index gained 1.0%, leaving it up 28.6% for the quarter.
There weren't a lot of "new" news drivers to jumpstart the market. Fed Chair Powell didn't say anything consequential on the rate cut front before the Senate Banking Committee today, NATO confirmed its commitment to a 5% defense spending target, and things were relatively quiet on the Israel-Iran front.
There was news in the Fed's proposal to lower the supplemental leverage ratio for GSIBs, as had been speculated. That news lent support to the Treasury market, which had been digesting a much weaker-than-expected new home sales report for May and a $70 billion 5-yr note auction that was met with okay, but not strong, demand.
The 2-yr note yield settled the session down three basis points at 3.78%, while the 10-yr note yield dropped one basis point to 4.29% after skimming 4.33% earlier in the day.
- S&P 500: +3.6% YTD
- Nasdaq: +3.4% YTD
- DJIA: +1.0% YTD
- S&P 400: -2.1% YTD
- Russell 2000: -4.2% YTD
Reviewing today's data:
- New home sales declined 13.7% month-over-month in May to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 623,000 units (Briefing.com consensus 700,000) from a downwardly revised 722,000 (from 743,000) in April. That was the weakest pace of sales since October 2024. On a year-over-year basis, new home sales were down 6.3%.
- The key takeaway from the report is that there is an ample supply of new homes for sale, yet overall sales were weak in May, with high prices and high mortgage rates crimping demand.
- MBA Mortgage Applications Index +1.1% wk/wk, with refinance applications up 3% and purchase applications down 0.4%.
NVIDIA makes a market
25-Jun-25 15:30 ET
Dow -101.67 at 42987.35, Nasdaq +48.88 at 19961.43, S&P +0.45 at 6092.63
[BRIEFING.COM] The indices continue to operate with a mixed disposition that belies some underlying weakness in today's market that is evident in the advance-decline line. However, when NVIDIA (NVDA 153.88, +5.98, +4.04%), with a $3.6 trillion market cap, trades up 4.0%, that has a way of overcoming a lot of losses seen elsewhere.
NVIDIA's move has helped prop up the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index, which is up 0.7% today and an astounding 28.4% this quarter.
Notably, the CBOE Volatility Index is down 3.6% to 16.86; meanwhile, the high-beta factor is outperforming the low-volatility factor in today's session.
The real estate (-1.8%), utilities (-1.2%), consumer staples (-1.2%), and consumer discretionary (-1.2%) sectors are today's biggest losers.
Mega-cap stocks toeing the line
25-Jun-25 15:05 ET
Dow -158.21 at 42930.81, Nasdaq +47.62 at 19960.17, S&P -0.97 at 6091.21
[BRIEFING.COM] The market cap-weighted S&P 500 is little changed today thanks in large part to the relative strength seen within the mega-cap space. Specifically, NVIDIA (NVDA 153.64, +5.74, +3.88%), Apple (AAPL 201.14, +0.84, +0.42%), and Microsoft (MSFT 490.77, +0.66, +0.13%) are carrying that torch.
Their influence is evident, as the S&P 500 trades down just fractionally with an advance-decline line that favors decliners by a better than 2-to-1 margin at the NYSE and a nearly 7-to-4 margin at the Nasdaq. Conversely, the equal-weighted S&P 500 is down 0.6%.
Seeing some general profit-taking activity after a big run, including among the banks, despite the Fed confirming a proposal to modify the enhanced supplementary leverage ratio buffer standard applicable to GSIBs to equal 50 percent of the bank holding company's method surcharge as determined by the Board's GSIB risk-based capital surcharge framework. The SPDR S&P Bank ETF (KBE 54.62, -0.24, -0.45%) is modestly lower.
Treasuries, though, have liked that development. The 2-yr note yield, at 3.81% earlier, is at 3.78% now, while the 10-yr note yield, at 4.33% earlier, is at 4.29% now.
S&P 500 slips as Paychex tumbles on weak guidance; Northern Trust extends deal rumor rally
25-Jun-25 14:25 ET
Dow -163.87 at 42925.15, Nasdaq +37.94 at 19950.49, S&P -3.36 at 6088.82
[BRIEFING.COM] The S&P 500 (-0.06%) is in second place on Wednesday afternoon, down less than four points.
Briefly, S&P 500 constituents Paychex (PAYX 138.32, -13.93, -9.15%), Dayforce (DAY 55.12, -2.63, -4.55%), and Conagra (CAG 20.56, -0.90, -4.19%) pepper the bottom of the standings. PAYX is down following earnings and guidance from this morning, while Conagra announced this morning it would eliminate FD&C colors from U.S. frozen foods by end of 2025 as part of portfolio modernization push.
Meanwhile, Northern Trust (NTRS 123.08, +4.90, +4.15%) is one of today's top performers, continuing recent deal-driven gains.
Gold edges higher as Middle East tensions linger and traders eye key U.S. data
25-Jun-25 14:00 ET
Dow -160.49 at 42928.53, Nasdaq +20.90 at 19933.45, S&P -4.84 at 6087.34
[BRIEFING.COM] The Nasdaq Composite (+0.10%) is in first place, but the steady fall off morning highs has continued to chip away in the last half hour.
Gold futures settled $9.20 higher (+0.3%) at $3,343.10/oz; the move came as traders kept one eye on the Middle East, despite a temporary cease-fire between Iran and Israel, tensions remain high enough to keep some safe-haven demand alive. At the same time, investors are also bracing for key U.S. economic data later this week, including inflation and GDP numbers, which could shape expectations for Fed policy.
Meanwhile, the U.S. Dollar Index is down -0.2% to $97.82.
Winnebago lower on guidance, hopes for an industry turnaround appear premature
Winnebago (WGO -9.5%) is trading lower following its Q3 (May) report this morning. The RV manufacturer, which produces both towables and motorhomes, reported EPS slightly above analyst expectations, while revenue came roughly in-line.
The company already provided Q3 guidance on June 5, as such, these results were largely anticipated. We suspect investor focus shifted to the remainder of FY25 and any early reads on FY26. Unfortunately, WGO lowered FY25 EPS guidance pretty substantially. Perhaps just as troubling, analysts had asked questions about FY26, but management denied to provide specifics, prompting a negative reaction in the stock.
- WGO continues to see the macroeconomic uncertainty weighing on consumer sentiment and the dealer network. This echoes commentary we heard from industry peer Thor Industries (THO) earlier in June. The sentiment from both companies is that this is a challenging period for the RV industry as a whole.
- WGO's disappointing numbers are more pronounced on the motorhome side, with 2HFY25 revenues expected to be significantly lower. Motorhome RV volume in Q3 declined 14.8% yr/yr and shipments 8.7% yr/yr. WGO cited market conditions and dealers reducing excess inventory.
- In response, WGO is aligning production to demand, reducing field inventory, and reevaluating its manufacturing footprint, which is expected to have a more meaningful impact in FY26.
- It is important to note that WGO did see some relative strength in its marine segment with revenue up 15%. WGO expects its marine segment to show continued momentum. Investors are likely pleased to see the marine segment mitigate problems on the RV side.
Overall, it's clear the RV industry remains in a downturn. Investors who have been hoping for a light at the end of the tunnel look like they have to wait a little longer. WGO reiterated what we heard from THO earlier in June, that it is going to take some time for the market to turnaround. We suspect investors are going to want to see at least some stabilization in the industry before buying back in.
BlackBerry tops Q1 estimates and issues better-than-expected guidance on solid demand in QNX (BB)
BlackBerry (BB) delivered another modest EPS beat for 1Q26, staying true to recent form, while reporting upside revenue of $121.7 mln and issuing a better-than-expected FY26 revenue outlook of $508-$538 mln. The improved guidance, particularly for QNX and Secure Communications, signals resilience in key markets like automotive and cybersecurity, bolstering confidence in BB’s ongoing turnaround efforts despite macroeconomic headwinds.
- The QNX segment, which provides real-time operating systems and software for automotive applications (e.g., digital cockpits and Advanced Driver Assistance Systems) and other embedded systems like industrial automation, remains BB’s growth engine, posting 8% yr/yr revenue growth to $57.5 mln in Q1, exceeding the top end of guidance. The segment’s performance was driven by a growing royalty backlog, reflecting contracted future revenue from design wins in automotive and the General Embedded Market.
- Key developments, such as the launch of QNX Hypervisor 8.0 and partnerships with WeRide and Leapmotor for autonomous driving and digital cockpit platforms, underscore QNX’s momentum. BB forecasts QNX revenue of $55-$60 mln for Q2 and $250-$270 mln for FY26, though management noted caution due to potential production slowdowns from recent tariff changes impacting Q2 royalty revenues. They clarified that while tariffs haven't had a direct impact on QNX, they have contributed to delays in customer purchasing decisions, particularly for newer products like QNX Cabin.
- The Secure Communications segment, encompassing secure communication solutions like Secusmart for government and enterprise clients, AtHoc for critical event management, and Unified Endpoint Management, delivered $59.5 mln in revenue, surpassing guidance, driven by strong renewals in Secusmart’s core German market. The segment’s adjusted gross margin improved significantly to 70%, up 6 percentage points sequentially and 4 percentage points yr/yrr, reflecting operational efficiencies and a shift toward recurring revenue streams, though Annual Recurring Revenue (ARR) remained relatively flat at $209 mln.
- BB guided Secure Communications revenue at $54-$59 mln for Q2 and $234-$244 mln for FY26, with growth propelled by demand for on-premise and data-sovereignty-centric solutions in government and defense sectors, as well as FedRAMP High authorization for AtHoc, positioning it as a leader in secure critical event management.
BB’s better-than-feared demand environment, driven by secular tailwinds in automotive software-defined vehicles and cybersecurity for government and enterprise applications, has fueled investor optimism, as evidenced by the stock’s sharp rise post-earnings. However, with total revenue down year-over-year in four of the past five quarters, BB must sustain QNX’s design win momentum and improve Secure Communications’ ARR growth to achieve consistent profitability and validate its turnaround thesis.
General Mills hit by rising input costs, leading to gloomy FY26 earnings forecast (GIS)
General Mills (GIS) narrowly surpassed 4Q25 EPS expectations, driven by improved volume trends as organic net sales declined by 3%, marking a sequential improvement from the 5% decline in Q3. However, the company issued disappointing guidance for FY26, projecting a 10-15% decline in adjusted EPS compared to a 7% decrease in FY25, despite anticipating organic net sales growth to range between a 1% decline and a 1% increase, an improvement from the 2% decline in FY25. This guidance reflects ongoing challenges in a competitive consumer environment, with management prioritizing volume-driven growth over margin expansion, signaling a cautious outlook for profitability amid persistent macroeconomic pressures.
- The primary factors pressuring GISs’ earnings include higher input costs and unfavorable net price realization, which have significantly compressed margins. In Q4, the adjusted gross margin fell by 220 basis points to 32.7%, driven by rising costs for raw materials and supply chain inefficiencies, compounded by trade expense timing that negatively impacted profitability.
- While tariffs have been cited as a broader concern for consumer goods companies, specific commentary from GISs’ management does not explicitly highlight tariffs as a primary driver of cost pressures in Q4; instead, the focus remains on input cost inflation and competitive pricing dynamics in a softening snacking and pet food market, which aligns with industry-wide trends.
- Organic net sales showed sequential improvement in Q4, declining 3% compared to 5% in Q3, with the North American Pet Segment emerging as a bright spot, posting 3% organic net sales growth. This growth was primarily driven by an increase in retailer inventory ahead of Q1 customer activations, marking a reversal from Q3 when inventory drawdowns weighed heavily on the segment’s performance. The acquisition of Edgard & Cooper in April 2024 and the North American Whitebridge Pet Brands business in December 2024 further bolstered the segment.
- In contrast, the North American Retail segment continued to underperform, with organic net sales declining 7% in Q4, worsening from a 6% drop in Q3, driven by lower pound volume and unfavorable net price realization and mix. The segment, which includes iconic brands like Cheerios, Betty Crocker, and Nature Valley, faced ongoing softness in the snacking category, where consumer demand has weakened amid macroeconomic pressures and competition from private-label brands. The divestiture of the Canada yogurt business reduced net sales by 3%, exacerbating the segment’s challenges.
In conclusion, GIS faces significant margin and earnings headwinds from rising input costs and unfavorable pricing dynamics, which the company is countering through aggressive share repurchases. To restore volume growth, management is intensifying investments in innovation and consumer-focused strategies, emphasizing “big bet” product launches centered on taste and value, such as fresh pet food and enhanced snacking offerings, to drive household penetration and market share in a challenging FY26.
FedEx heads lower despite Q4 upside as guidance is a concern for investors (FDX)
FedEx (FDX -2%) did not quite deliver like investors wanted as it closed out FY25. The package delivery giant reported a huge EPS beat for Q4 (May), its largest upside in the past five quarters. Revenue edged higher by 0.5% yr/yr to $22.22 bln, a bit better than expected. The main problem was the Q1 (Aug) EPS guidance, which was well below analyst expectations.
- Management sounded pretty pleased with its Q4 results given the weak demand environment, with growth largely driven by its deferred services, which refers to longer delivery times at lower rates. This is designed for customers who prioritize cost savings over speed. That tells us customers are watching what they spend.
- Despite the headwinds, FDX posted a 1% revenue increase at Federal Express, but there was continued weakness, as expected, at FedEx Freight. For both segments, a better-than-expected May more than offset a softer-than-expected April. US domestic volumes held up well throughout the quarter, with growth accelerating in late April and May.
- From an international perspective, volume trends closely tracked global trade headlines. March was solid, but following the April 2 tariff announcement, customer concerns increased and volume softened. In early May when tariffs were implemented, China to US volumes deteriorated sharply and remained weak throughout the rest of the quarter.
- Consistent with the trends over the last several quarters, its higher margin B2B volumes remained pressured in Q4, which affected both Express and Freight results. However, FDX was encouraged by the sequential improvement at FedEx Freight and its ability to protect segment profitability with an operating margin of 20.8% in Q4. Recall that FDX previously announced it will spin off its Freight segment as a new publicly traded company by mid-2026.
- In terms of the weak guidance, FDX cited the prolonged weakness in the industrial economy. In addition, the US Postal Service contract expiration will be a near-term headwind for growth. For FY26, FDX expects around $1 bln in incremental yr/yr benefit from its transformation-related efforts, which includes structural cost reduction benefits from DRIVE and Network 2.0.
Overall, the Q4 results were actually pretty good for FedEx, especially given the macro headwinds and with the tariffs being announced mid-quarter. However, the Q1 guidance was quite weak and management seemed pretty cautious on the call, which is likely weighing on shares also. It sounds like results will remain pressured until the industrial economy improves, which will take time. On a final note, UPS will report Q2 results in late July. This report makes us more cautious on UPS.
Carnival rides wave of strong cruise demand, boosts outlook on Q2 onboard spending surge (CCL)
Carnival (CCL) is cruising sharply higher following a robust 2Q25 earnings report that exceeded expectations and included an upward revision to FY25 guidance, reflecting resilient cruise demand despite broader macroeconomic headwinds. The company’s strong performance was propelled by robust close-in bookings and elevated onboard spending, which drove record Q2 revenues of $6.33 bln, up 9.5% yr/yr, surpassing the $6.21 bln FactSet consensus estimate.
While travel demand has softened in many areas due to rising economic pressures, cruises continue to demonstrate remarkable resilience, offering a compelling value proposition compared to land-based vacations, with bundled packages and all-inclusive pricing attracting cost-conscious consumers seeking predictable vacation costs.
- CCL's Q2 adjusted EPS soared 218% yr/yr to $0.35, comfortably beating the consensus estimate of $0.24, underpinned by strong operational execution and favorable pricing dynamics. A key driver of this EPS growth was a 6.4% yr/yr increase in net yields (in constant currency), which outperformed CCL’s March guidance by 200 bps, reflecting the company’s ability to capture higher revenue per passenger.
- Elevated onboard spending was a significant contributor, fueled by strong uptake of bundled packages that include drinks, Wi-Fi, and excursions, alongside premium offerings like spa services and specialty dining. Higher ticket prices, particularly in high-demand regions like the Caribbean and Mediterranean, further bolstered net yields, while disciplined cost management amplified profitability.
- CCL’s bullish FY25 outlook underscores confidence in sustained demand, with the company raising its full-year adjusted EPS guidance to $1.97 from $1.83. Although Q3 EPS guidance of $1.30 fell slightly short of expectations, the company projects Q3 net yields to rise approximately 3.5% above 2024’s already strong levels (in constant currency), signaling continued pricing power. For FY25, CCL projects net yields to jump by 5.0%.
- Record total customer deposits of $8.5 bln highlight robust booking momentum, while cumulative advanced bookings for 2026 are tracking in line with 2025’s record levels and at historically high prices (in constant currency), reinforcing CCL’s strong market position. This forward-looking strength reflects consumer enthusiasm for cruise vacations and CCL’s ability to lock in high-value bookings well in advance, providing visibility into future revenue streams.
- CCL’s impressive beat-and-raise performance bodes well for peers Royal Caribbean Cruises (RCL) and Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings (NCLH), set to report Q2 earnings on July 24 and July 31, respectively, as industry-wide tailwinds like strong bookings and yield growth are likely to lift their results, provided they execute similarly on cost control and onboard monetization.
The company's Q2 results and raised FY25 guidance highlight the enduring appeal of cruises as a cost-effective, high-value vacation option amid a challenging economic backdrop. The company’s ability to capitalize on robust demand through elevated onboard spending and favorable pricing dynamics positions it well for continued growth. With record bookings and strong consumer loyalty, CCL is steering toward a prosperous 2025.
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