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Strategies & Market Trends : ajtj's Post-Lobotomy Market Charts and Thoughts
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To: ajtj99 who wrote (92908)6/27/2025 12:40:46 PM
From: ajtj991 Recommendation

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Smart_Asset

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Here's the monthly TNX. Note the A-V in the full stochs at the top. This is pointing to a new strong move up in rates as a continuation of the secular change off the 2020 lows.

The bullish pennant target on this monthly chart is 6.2% on the TNX. That's nearly a 50% increase in interest rates.

This projected move up starting in the end of August coincides nicely with the increase in the debt ceiling and the $2-Trillion flood of supply that is expected to be auctioned off this fall by the Treasury.

If the housing market is in rough shape right now, it will be basically shut down if interest rates move up like this in the fall. You could also kiss goodbye to any thoughts of a Federal Reserve rate cut this year.

Treasury bond prices could remain elevated if Trump names his new Fed Reserve puppet in late summer. The expectation is the sycophant will do Trump's bidding and become the first Fed chair since Arthur Burns to be the president's bitch.

A huge disconnect between the Fed Funds and the Treasury market with the Fed Funds rate several percentage points below T-Bills would create an inflationary spiral.

If all this comes to pass, there will be ramifications everywhere in the US. However, it should bode very well for precious metals.

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