Market Snapshot
| Dow | 43819.27 | +432.43 | (1.00%) | | Nasdaq | 20273.47 | +105.54 | (0.52%) | | SP 500 | 6173.07 | +32.05 | (0.52%) | | 10-yr Note |
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| | NYSE | Adv 1531 | Dec 1241 | Vol 2.95 bln | | Nasdaq | Adv 2153 | Dec 2349 | Vol 11.46 bln |
Industry Watch
| Strong: Consumer Discretionary, Communication Services, Consumer Staples, Industrials |
| | Weak: Energy, Health Care |
Moving the Market
--S&P 500 and NASDAQ set new all-time highs
--Post-earnings strength in Nike (NKE)
--U.S. ends trade talks with Canada; President Trump hints at Canada facing a higher tariff rate
--Optimism about imminent trade deals and U.S.-China trade framework dynamic
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Closing Stock Market Summary
27-Jun-25 16:25 ET
Dow +432.43 at 43819.27, Nasdaq +105.54 at 20273.47, S&P +32.05 at 6173.07
[BRIEFING.COM] The S&P 500 hit a record high today, and it also achieved a record closing high. The bulls found more calls to action early following a report that the U.S. and China had confirmed their trade framework agreement that should increase rare earth exports from China and relax restrictions on exports of technology products to China and that the U.S. could be on the cusp of announcing 10 trade deals.
That news preceded a personal income and spending report for May that was short on both income and spending and long on inflation, with both the PCE Price Index and core-PCE Price Index ticking higher on a year-over-year basis. Notwithstanding a bit of stagflation aura in that combination, the market looked past the report and traded higher, riding trend momentum and a big gain in Dow component NIKE (NKE 72.04, +9.50, +15.19%) following its earnings report.
It also had continued sponsorship from the mega-cap cohort, which pushed the S&P 500 to its session high of 6,187.68, up 0.8%, during the New York lunch hour. That gain disappeared entirely in the afternoon trade after President Trump posted on Truth Social that the U.S. is terminating its discussions with Canada due to its 400% tariff on dairy products and digital services tax. He then added that, "We will let Canada know the tariff that they will be paying to do business with the United States of America."
This update triggered some broad-based selling, ostensibly because of concerns about tariff inflation and the specter of other countries facing higher tariff rates when the pause on reciprocal tariff rates expires July 9. The Treasury market seemed to reflect those concerns, as the inflation-sensitive 10-yr note saw its yield move from 4.24% to 4.29%.
True to form, though, the stock market regrouped and spent the final hour of trading riding a wave of buy-the-dip interest that took the S&P 500 from 6,132.35 to its closing level of 6,173.07, which now stands as the new record closing high.
Just as most stocks were part of the selloff, most stocks were part of the closing rebound effort. Nine of the 11 S&P 500 sectors closed the day higher, led by the consumer discretionary (+1.8%), communication services (+1.5%), and industrials (+1.0%) sectors. The only sectors to close lower were health care (-0.2%) and energy (-0.5%).
Today's session transpired against a backdrop of negotiations in the Senate over the "One Big, Beautiful Bill." Bloomberg reported that Senate Republicans reached a deal to raise the SALT cap to $40,000 for a five-year period, but it was also noted that it is unclear if enough House GOP members will accept this deal. CNBC reported separately that the Senate is hoping to vote on the bill this weekend, while Treasury Secretary Bessent said in a CNBC interview that there is a very good chance of the bill making it to the president's desk by July 4.
- S&P 500: +5.0% YTD
- Nasdaq: +5.0% YTD
- DJIA: +3.0% YTD
- S&P 400: -0.6% YTD
- Russell 2000: -2.6% YTD
Reviewing today's data:
- Personal income declined 0.4% month-over-month in May (Briefing.com consensus +0.4%) following a downwardly revised 0.7% increase (from 0.8%) in April. Personal spending declined 0.1% (Briefing.com consensus +0.2%) following a 0.2% increase in April. Real personal spending declined 0.3%, which will be a drag on Q2 GDP forecasts. The PCE Price Index increased 0.1% month-over-month, as expected, but the core-PCE Price Index jumped 0.2% month-over-month, which was higher than expected (Briefing.com consensus 0.1%). Those moves left the PCE Price Index up 2.3% year-over-year, versus 2.2% in April, and the core-PCE Price Index up 2.7% year-over-year, versus 2.6% in April.
- The key takeaway from the report is that it has a stagflation aura about it, meaning it is a poor report for the growth outlook and a poor report for the inflation trend. That leaves the Fed between a rock and a hard policy place, yet given the Fed's attention to inflation concerns at this juncture, it seems like a report that will keep the Fed reluctant to cut rates at its July FOMC meeting.
- The final University of Michigan Index of Consumer Sentiment for June edged up to 60.7 (Briefing.com consensus 60.5) from the preliminary reading of 60.5. The final reading for May was 52.2. In the same period a year ago, the index stood at 68.2.
- The key takeaway from the report is that the June survey showed overall improvement in current sentiment, aided by an improved view of personal finances, business conditions, and the inflation outlook that followed the pause on the reciprocal tariff rates (which is due to expire July 9) and the ensuing stock market rally.
Industrials lead rebound from session lows
27-Jun-25 15:35 ET
Dow +283.61 at 43670.45, Nasdaq +9.61 at 20177.54, S&P +8.97 at 6149.99
[BRIEFING.COM] The major averages have pulled back noticeably from their midday session highs, but have managed to bounce from their worst levels of the session reached a short time ago with the S&P 500 now up only 0.1% .
Four sectors now trade in negative territory, with energy (-0.7%), materials (-0.2%), healthcare (-0.3%), and technology (-0.1%) pace the recent decline.
Mega-cap stocks have set the pace for the market this week, but have since pulled back from earlier gains with companies such as Tesla (TSLA 320.01, -5.77, -1.77%), Broadcom (AVGO 268.21, -1.96, -0.73%), and Microsoft (MSFT 495.17, -2.28, -0.46%) among the laggards. The Vanguard Mega Cap Growth Index Fund (MGK 363.04, +0.52, +0.14%) is up 0.1% for the session after being up 0.8%.
The industrials sector (+0.%) has emerged as the strongest performer of the day, led by top component GE Aerospace eclipsing a new all-time high. A strong showing from defense stocks has the ITA iShares DJ Aerospace (ITA 186.48, +1.98, +1.1%) at a new record high.
Early gains get rolled back after U.S. ends trade talks with Canada
27-Jun-25 15:00 ET
Dow +209.86 at 43596.70, Nasdaq -64.54 at 20103.39, S&P -5.20 at 6135.82
[BRIEFING.COM] The stock market hit a wall with President Trump's acknowledgment that he has ended trade discussions with Canada due to its 400% tariff on dairy products and digital services tax. He left things vague, saying, "We will let Canada know the tariff that they will be paying to do business with the United States of America."
This comes ahead of the July 9 expiration date for the pause on reciprocal tariffs and serves as an example, perhaps, of the blowback other countries might face if it is thought they are not working diligently to get a trade deal with the U.S.
One can see the cause and effect in this headline, which hit around 1:40 p.m. ET, but it is harder to ascertain if the market is really bothered by this news or is simply seeing it as an excuse to do some month-end selling following a tremendous run by the market. It has the semblance of being bothersome, given that the inflation-sensitive 10-yr note yield jumped at the same time, going from 4.24% to 4.29%.
In any case, most stocks have been rolled back from higher levels. The S&P 500, up as much as 0.8%, is now down 0.1% for the session.
S&P 500 slips to session lows; Equinix, GE Vernova shine as Enphase drags clean energy stocks
27-Jun-25 14:30 ET
Dow +289.35 at 43676.19, Nasdaq +19.07 at 20187.00, S&P +13.41 at 6154.43
[BRIEFING.COM] The S&P 500 (+0.22%) is in second place among the major averages, near session lows in recent trading.
Briefly, S&P 500 constituents Equinix (EQIX 784.99, +39.46, +5.29%), GE Vernova (GEV 527.02, +20.21, +3.99%), and C.H. Robinson (CHRW 95.99, +2.80, +3.00%) pepper the top of the standings despite a dearth of corporate news.
Meanwhile, Enphase Energy (ENPH 40.09, -2.91, -6.77%) is today's top laggard as clean energy/solar stocks are widely lower.
Gold drops 1.8% as easing geopolitical tensions and firm dollar weigh on safe-haven appeal
27-Jun-25 14:00 ET
Dow +363.31 at 43750.15, Nasdaq +40.91 at 20208.84, S&P +21.40 at 6162.42
[BRIEFING.COM] The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite (+0.20%), along with its counterparts, has shaved a bit off levels from half an hour ago as headlines crossed that Canada caught the ire or President Trump once again as he deemed it necessary to terminate trade discussions with Canada due to the country's 400% tariff on dairy products and digital services tax.
Gold futures settled $60.50 lower (-1.8%) at $3,302.30/oz, extending their weekly loss to -2.5% as easing geopolitical tensions and renewed U.S./China trade optimism dampened safe-haven demand. Despite expectations for Fed rate cuts later this year, high real yields and soft U.S. spending data pressured prices further.
Meanwhile, the U.S. Dollar Index is up +0.2% today to $97.45.
Apogee Enterprises gains on beat-and-raise Q1 report as UW Solutions acquisition fuels growth (APOG)
Apogee Enterprises (APOG) is trading sharply higher after delivering 1Q26 earnings that exceeded expectations, while also raising its FY26 EPS and revenue expectations. Management’s confidence in a stronger second half of the year, driven by operational momentum and strategic initiatives, fueled the positive market reaction. The recent $242 mln acquisition of UW Solutions, completed in November 2024, played a pivotal role in the upside, contributing $22.0 mln in inorganic revenue to Q1 sales and bolstering the Performance Surfaces segment, while also supporting the company’s raised FY26 guidance.
- Despite the strong topline performance, with net sales rising 4.6% yr/yr to $346.6 mln, tariffs posed a significant headwind, particularly impacting the Architectural Services segment, where adjusted EBITDA margin contracted sharply to 9.9% from 15.9% in the prior-year quarter. The company estimates tariffs will reduce FY26 EPS by $0.35–$0.45, with the brunt felt in the first half.
- To counter this, APOG is executing mitigation strategies, including optimizing supply chain logistics to source materials from less tariff-impacted regions, renegotiating supplier contracts to reduce costs, and passing select cost increases to customers where feasible. Management expects these actions to substantially offset tariff impacts in the second half, reflecting proactive cost management and pricing discipline.
- The Performance Surfaces segment emerged as a standout, with net sales soaring 99.3% to $42.3 mln from $21.2 mln in the year-ago quarter, driven primarily by the UW Solutions acquisition’s $22.0 mln contribution. This acquisition expanded APOG’s Large-Scale Optical segment into high-performance coated substrates, creating a scalable growth platform. However, the integration of UW Solutions diluted the segment’s adjusted EBITDA margin to 18.8% from 23.3%, reflecting higher interest and amortization expenses and operational integration costs.
- In contrast, the Architectural Metals and Architectural Glass segments faced yr/yr revenue declines. Architectural Glass saw a 15.5% sales drop due to reduced end-market demand, particularly in commercial construction, where economic uncertainty and higher interest rates have curtailed project activity. Architectural Metals, despite higher volumes, experienced a less favorable product mix, with lower-margin projects weighing on net sales. These headwinds reflect broader market challenges, including cost inflation and cautious customer spending, though Architectural Metals showed sequential improvement, suggesting potential stabilization if demand trends recover.
APOG's’ Q1 results and raised FY26 guidance underscore the transformative impact of the UW Solutions acquisition, which has fortified the Performance Surfaces segment and diversified revenue streams. The company’s proactive tariff mitigation efforts, including supply chain optimization and strategic pricing, position it to navigate near-term challenges and deliver a stronger second half, supporting a bullish outlook for FY26.
NIKE soars as Q1 guidance and encouraging commentary signal turnaround momentum after tough Q4 (NKE)
NIKE's (NKE) 4Q25 results surpassed rock-bottom expectations and that low bar to hurdle was reflected by the stock's 34% year-to-date decline prior to today's gains. NKE reiterated that Q4 absorbed the largest financial impact from its "Win Now" turnaround strategy, as previously forecasted, with CFO Matthew Friend emphasizing that headwinds are expected to moderate moving forward. The company’s 1Q26 revenue guidance, projecting a mid-single-digit decline (versus a 7% drop expected by analysts), suggests that the worst of the financial strain is now behind NKE, fostering cautious optimism among investors.
- The Q4 results underscored a predictably challenging period, with revenues declining 11.9% yr/yr to $11.1 bln, driven by an 11% drop in North America and a 20% plunge in Greater China on a currency-neutral basis. Key headwinds include intensified competition from innovative brands like On Running (ONON) and Hoka, which have captured market share in performance footwear with fresh designs, and NKE’s prior over-reliance on flagship products like Air Force 1s and Dunks, coupled with an aggressive push into direct-to-consumer channels (DTC) under former CEO John Donahoe.
- This DTC focus, while initially boosting margins during the pandemic, led to inventory overhangs and weakened wholesale relationships, contributing to a 14% decline in NIKE Direct sales (including a 26% drop in NIKE Digital) and a 9% drop in wholesale revenues in Q4. Softer consumer demand, particularly in China due to competitive pressures and nationalistic sentiment, further exacerbated the downturn.
- Tariffs emerged as a significant new challenge, with NKE estimating a $1 bln cost impact in FY26 before price increases and supply chain adjustments. Rising input costs, compounded by heavy promotional activities to clear excess inventory, severely pressured profitability, with Q4 gross margin contracting 440 bps yr/yr to 40.3%. NKE’s Q1 guidance projects further gross margin compression of 350-425 bps, including approximately 100 bps directly attributable to tariff-related pressures, reflecting the company’s vulnerability to trade policy changes given its reliance on Asian manufacturing.
- To mitigate tariff impacts, NKE has been proactively diversifying its manufacturing base, reducing its footwear production in China to 16% last year from 29% in 2016, with increased sourcing from countries like Vietnam and Indonesia. Management’s confidence in fully offsetting tariff headwinds through price adjustments and supply chain efficiencies signals a long-term commitment to restoring margin stability, though near-term pressures will likely persist.
- On the innovation front, NKE is showing signs of progress under CEO Elliott Hill’s "Win Now" strategy, with recent launches like the Pegasus Premium and Vomero 18 gaining traction among runners and signaling a renewed focus on performance-oriented products. A high-profile collaboration with Kim Kardashian’s Skims brand has also bolstered NKE’s appeal in the women’s apparel segment, addressing competitive pressure from brands like Lululemon (LULU) and Alo Yoga.
- Additionally, NKE is rebuilding wholesale partnerships with key retailers like Dick’s Sporting Goods (DKS), Foot Locker (recently acquired by Dick’s), and Macy’s (M), reversing the prior DTC-heavy approach that strained these relationships.
NKE’s Q4 results were undeniably weak, aligning with expectations of significant pressure from its turnaround efforts, but the Q1 revenue guidance of a mid-single-digit decline -- less severe than Q4’s 11.9% drop -- signals a potential inflection point. Management’s reiterated outlook that headwinds will moderate, coupled with early progress in innovation and wholesale relationships, has driven a strong rally in NKE shares, reflecting renewed investor confidence in the company’s recovery trajectory.
Concentrix rallies back to a small gain after post-earnings drop last night (CNXC)
Concentrix (CNXC +1%) is trading modestly higher despite a disappointing Q2 (May) earnings report last night. Following $0.20+ EPS beats the last two quarters, this CX (Customer Experience) company missed on EPS. Revenue rose only modestly, by 1.5% yr/yr to $2.42 bln, but that was slightly better than expected. The Q3 (Aug) guidance was mixed with upside revs but the mid-point of EPS guidance was a bit soft. CNXC raised FY25 guidance by a good amount.
- Revenue growth was well-balanced across verticals. Revenue from retail, travel, and e-commerce clients grew 3%, led by growth with travel clients. Media and communications also grew 3%, after this vertical has been flat to down in the past few years. Revenue from banking, financial services and insurance clients grew 2%, while its tech vertical and healthcare vertical were both relatively flat, reflecting offshore movement.
- The main problem in Q2 is that margins took a hit due to tariff concerns/confusion. Some clients paused programs as they sorted through the impact of tariffs on their business. During this time, CNXC kept their programs stable with the expectation that these programs would start to resume in May and they have.
- Concentrix could have laid people off in April during this pause. However, it maintained labor so that the company would be well-positioned to benefit from what should be a stronger second half to the fiscal year. And that was prudent because, by the end of May, CNXC exited the month with margin trending more favorably. Also, CNXC expects meaningful sequential margin improvement in Q3 and Q4.
- Despite the pause by some clients in Q2, Concentrix launched iX Hero, its agentic AI-powered application. This complements its autonomous AI assistant product, iX Hello, giving clients an array of AI options to meet their needs for both full automation and human augmentation. CNXC is delighted with the early market traction and its pipeline of integrated product deals is strong.
- A benefit for CNXC is that it's a large player in the CX space and can offer a wide breadth of services. On this point, Concentrix noted that clients are centralizing spend with partners that have scale, breadth, and expertise to deliver large-scale programs that combine consulting, IT integration, CX expertise, and AI.
What stands out to us is that this stock was down 9% after the close yesterday, but we think the call last night calmed some nerves. The EPS miss was due to a temporary pause by clients, but it sounds like they are moving again on projects. And it was wise for CNXC to not scale back its workforce. The stock has been recovering nicely in early trading today as investors more fully understand this dynamic. We also think CNXC's decision to increase FY25 guidance despite the Q2 miss really soothed some investor nerves.
MillerKnoll bounces back with strong Q4 and guidance after lackluster Q3 report
MillerKnoll (MLKN +12%) is trading sharply higher following a nice EPS beat for Q4 (May) last night. This is a nice bounce back quarter after a very modest beat in Q3 (Feb). The upside move in this office furniture supplier appears to be driven by management's cautiously optimistic tone and encouraging trends, including continued momentum around office re-entry. As such, investors are responding positively to the improved outlook.
- The EPS beat can be attributed to better-than-expected sales and strong gross margin performance, which improved 130 bps sequentially to 39.2%. Revenue came in at $962 mln, up 8.2% yr/yr and well above the mid-point of guidance.
- Management attributed the upside to broad-based strength across all segments, marking a clear rebound from Q3, which was noticeably impacted by macroeconomic headwinds.
- MLKN's North America Contract segment saw a 13% yr/yr increase in sales, with new orders up nearly 16% yr/yr. This growth was largely driven by demand being pulled forward ahead of the company's April 21 tariff-related surcharge and June 2 price increase. Additionally, the International Contract segment saw sales up 6.9% yr/yr and new orders up 3.6% yr/yr.
- What really stood out about this report was the upside guidance for Q1 (Aug), the mid-point of which was well above analyst expectations. MLKN cited increased office leasing activity and consistent yr/yr growth in industry orders. Management also highlighted several levers it can pull to drive revenue in light of the current macro environment.
Investors were pleased to see the large EPS upside and especially the bullish guidance for Q1. The investment community has been hoping for solid signs of a return to work. This report was a good sign that MLKN is making progress. Shares have been trading mostly sideways in the $16.50-$17.50 range over the last month. Investors were cautious heading into this report given the lackluster Q3 report. As such, it was good to see the stock break above that range on this report.
Jefferies' Q2 EPS miss on fixed income weakness signals mixed picture for financial sector (JEF)
Jefferies (JEF) reported 2Q25 results after the close last night, falling short of EPS expectations primarily due to softness in Fixed Income net revenue and modest one-time non-compensation expenses. As the first major investment bank to report, JEFs’ results are closely watched as a bellwether for the financial sector’s Q2 earnings season, offering early insights into trends in investment banking, capital markets, and trading. Despite the earnings miss, the company’s diversified business model and resilient Advisory segment provide a nuanced backdrop for broader sector expectations.
- The first two months of the quarter proved challenging for JEF, with equity underwriting particularly hard-hit, experiencing a 51% yr/yr decline in net revenue to $122.4 lnn due to volatile equity market conditions that stifled IPO and follow-on deal activity. However, a notable recovery in May bolstered the Investment Banking Advisory business, which saw robust strength driven by increased merger and acquisition (M&A) activity.
- JEFs’ management expressed growing optimism for 2H25, citing a strong deal pipeline, active client discussions around capital formation, and improving investor confidence as key drivers of expected momentum. This late-quarter upswing suggests that stabilizing market conditions could pave the way for a stronger performance in the coming months.
- Drilling down further on the Q2 results, Investment Banking net revenue rose 6.4% yr/yr to $786 mln, propelled by a standout 61% surge in Advisory revenue to $457.9 mln, reflecting significant market share gains and a rebound in M&A activity. The robust Advisory growth was fueled by JEFs’ strategic investments in its platform, including its alliance with Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group, which has enhanced its global reach and cross-border M&A capabilities.
- However, this strength in Advisory was partially offset by a 51% plunge in Equity underwriting revenue, driven by a soft IPO market early in the quarter, as volatility dampened investor appetite for new issuances. Debt underwriting revenue remained flat at $205.36 mln, providing some stability but failing to counterbalance the equity segment’s weakness.
- The Capital Markets segment saw a slight yr/yr decline in net revenue to $704 mln, down 0.4% from the prior year, with a bifurcated performance between Equities and Fixed Income. Equities net revenue jumped 24% to $526 mln, driven by increased global trading volumes and strong activity in corporate derivatives, particularly in Europe and Asia, reflecting Jefferies’ investments in electronic trading and equity derivative platforms. In contrast, Fixed Income net revenue fell 37% to $178 mln, hampered by lower volatility and reduced trading activity in distressed and securitized products amid a challenging bond market environment.
JEFs’ Q2 results paint a mixed picture for the financial sector as Q2 earnings season approaches, with strength in Advisory and Equities offset by Fixed Income weakness and an earnings miss. The company’s optimism for 2H25, fueled by a strong May rebound and a robust M&A pipeline, signals potential upside for JEF and the broader sector, particularly in investment banking.
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