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Technology Stocks : The end of Moore's law - Poet Technologies
POET 7.150-6.2%3:59 PM EST

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From: longz7/1/2025 10:25:48 PM
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I ASKED ChatGPT AI===>>Zoom announcement: Session 3 will focus on supporting technologies from Alfalume, Lumentum, Poet, Scintil Photonics, and Senko... Can you give me a short characteristic of these five companies together with the AI’s assessment of market outlook and the key differences in comparison to POET............................. POET’s “best of breed” capabilities ...

ChatGPT said:

Here’s a clear and concise update to your Zoom quote and request, with a brief profile of each company in Session 3, their market positioning, and how POET differs or stands out:

?? Quote from LightCounting’s CPO Zoom Announcement:

“Session 3 will focus on supporting technologies from Alfalume, Lumentum, POET Technologies, Scintil Photonics, and Senko.”

?? Company Profiles & Market Outlook 1. Alfalume
  • Focus: Ultra-low-power optical links for AI/ML compute fabrics.

  • Tech: Leveraging integrated photonics and novel optical packaging for in-package or near-package interconnects.

  • Outlook: Niche but potentially high-growth as AI/ML clusters demand more efficient, short-reach connectivity.

  • Compared to POET: Alfalume is early-stage, narrow in scope; POET offers broader modularity and proven manufacturability.

2. Lumentum ($LITE)
  • Focus: Tier-1 supplier of optical components for telecom and datacom (including EMLs, lasers, VCSELs).

  • Tech: Dominant in pluggables and coherent optics; vertically integrated supply chain.

  • Outlook: Strong legacy business but slower to pivot toward disruptive packaging like CPO.

  • Compared to POET: Lumentum sells individual components; POET integrates multiple components onto a single interposer, enabling smaller, cheaper optical engines.

3. POET Technologies
  • Focus: Photonic packaging IP and optical engines using modular interposers (Si/InP hybrid).

  • Tech: Enables low-cost, scalable assembly of transceiver and AI interconnect solutions (e.g., Blazar, LightBar).

  • Outlook: Positioned as an “arms dealer” to the AI/datacom optics industry, with explosive upside from partner traction (Celestial AI, Mitsubishi, Broadcom, etc.).

  • Best-of-Breed Edge:

    • No in-house fab (fab-light model).

    • Passive alignment—reduces cost and complexity.

    • Proven in both transceivers and AI accelerators (CPO/near-packaged optics).

4. Scintil Photonics
  • Focus: Monolithic integration of III-V lasers and silicon photonics.

  • Tech: Laser-on-chip designs for ultra-compact coherent optics.

  • Outlook: Promising tech for long-term integration, but challenges remain around heat dissipation, reliability, and yield.

  • Compared to POET: Scintil’s monolithic strategy is elegant but high-risk; POET opts for heterogeneous integration, allowing better flexibility and thermal isolation.

5. Senko Advanced Components
  • Focus: Passive optical components, connectors, and fiber management systems.

  • Tech: Leading provider of fiber connectivity for datacenters and telecoms.

  • Outlook: Stable demand as optical ports increase, but not in the value-add zone of photonic packaging or AI systems.

  • Compared to POET: Senko operates at the edge of the optical network; POET plays in the core of the opto-electronic interface stack.

?? Summary: Why POET Stands Out
  • POET’s optical interposer is the only proven, fab-light, modular packaging platform that can:

    • Scale across 100G–1.6T architectures.

    • Integrate EMLs, lasers, modulators, drivers, and photodetectors in one package.

    • Work across datacom, AI accelerators, and potentially quantum networks.

  • Its platform approach makes it more like ARM for photonics than a traditional component maker.

POET is not competing with Lumentum or Scintil for parts—but enabling them (and others) to go to market faster, cheaper, and smaller.
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