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Technology Stocks : Y2K (Year 2000) Stocks: An Investment Discussion
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To: DD™ who wrote (9632)2/24/1998 3:29:00 PM
From: paul e thomas  Read Replies (2) of 13949
 
COMMENTS ON BUSINESS WEEK ARTICLE
I worked very closely with the Economic Forecasting firm that did the analysis of the effect of the Year 2000 problem on the USA economy. The story led to a very important conclusion to me in view of my previously stated strategy of holding my Y2K shares long enough to qualify for the long term capital gains rate or at least for the 28% rate for a 12 month holding period. The main conclusion I draw is that there will not be a recession until the year 2000 begins. The Business WEEK study examined the effects of the cost of compliance on the REAL GNP, productivity, and the inflation rate. While all effects are large in a macro-economic sense they are not sufficient to offset other positive economic forces. This study did not attempt to quantify the economic impact of the actual economic consequences of a disruption in output due to a 1/1/00 widespread failure of computer systems. I don't know when the stock market might drop due to fear of 1/1/00 adverse effects.My guess is that the fear will start to escalate right after the September 1999 earnings are published.I feel more comfortable after reading the story than I did before that I may be able to hold my stocks to mid August 1999. I also sense that once the media starts to play up the potential crisis that fear could escalate rapidly.Somewhere along the line Bill Clinton is going to shift gears from telling people that you don't have to worry at all to protecting AL Gores ass by trying to shift blame to The Republicans for not providing sufficient funds to solve the problem.This will increase consumer awareness appreciably alone.
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